As Christmas greetings made the rounds, so did quieter whispers of an unsettling rumor: that a major mining company shareholder is allegedly being groomed to take the helm of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR).

This raises a troubling scenario: Is current Environment Secretary Raphael “Popo” Lotilla already on borrowed time—despite being barely a year into his post?

The mining magnate, who has parlayed business success into political clout, is reportedly being tapped for—or is eyeing—the DENR portfolio. This comes even as the individual's company allegedly faces contentious tax issues and royalty disputes with host communities. According to the grapevine, this DENR hopeful is stepping aside from a political role, seemingly to clear a path for a higher perch at the department.

Just this September, Republic Act No. 12253 introduced a seismic shift in large-scale metallic mining. The law enforces a tiered royalty regime, windfall profit taxes, and strict “ring-fencing” to rein in excess profits and plug long-standing revenue leaks in the extractive industry.

This statute stands at the heart of the DENR’s deliverables. It forces industry players to reckon with both their environmental responsibilities and their financial obligations to the state, while also compelling firms to account for regulatory breaches. But if a key industry player with sprawling operations is handed the DENR portfolio, where does public regulation end and private interest begin?

Beyond environmental oversight, the DENR is on the front lines of climate accountability. It is currently collaborating with the Climate Change Commission (CCC) to finalize the new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), which will uphold the country’s carbon reduction pledges under the Paris Agreement.

As a central force in the nation’s decarbonization drive, the DENR is also spearheading multi-stakeholder efforts to launch a carbon market and is finalizing marine spatial planning for the Philippines’ fledgling offshore wind sector. Any abrupt shake-up at the department risks throwing these urgent policies off track, potentially stalling initiatives intended to attract fresh investment.

At stake here is more than leadership; it is the administration’s commitment to integrity and merit—especially if a widely respected Secretary faces displacement.

Separately, the lingering multi-billion-peso flood control scandal continues to spook investors. Business leaders and economists warn of declining confidence, already mirrored by this year’s slump in foreign investment commitments.

As former DPWH Secretary Rogelio “Babes” Singson and ex-SGV country managing partner Rossana Fajardo step down from the Independent Commission for Infrastructure (ICI), fears mount that the body tasked with probing corruption is losing the credibility it desperately needs.

Global investors are keenly monitoring the fallout. They are questioning whether the true masterminds will face justice, or if accountability will be limited to contractors and lower-tier DPWH officials.

Despite the President’s earlier vow to jail those involved before Christmas, high-profile figures remain untouched, fueling public frustration over a lackluster outcome.

What is the fate of the lawmakers once named as recipients of flood control kickbacks—or the resigned officials allegedly involved in illicitly approving funds for “ghost projects”?

Realistically, how can the Philippines attract foreign capital when large-scale corruption remains unresolved? Investors will think twice—if not thrice—when graft cases linger in limbo. Without real accountability, the Philippines risks being written off as a perilous market. These investigations cast a long shadow over the country’s economic prospects for the remainder of the Marcos term.

Even this early, investors are scrutinizing the 2028 political battlefield, analyzing not only potential presidential candidates but the web of business interests orbiting them. For foreign capital, knowing who backs the likely winners is critical; in the Philippines, regulatory capture runs deep, and policy is often dictated by those nearest to power.

In a country notorious for incarcerating former presidents, the pressing question is whether the current administration and its allies will hedge their bets by switching loyalties, or risk the wrath of the next leadership.

By 2026, political realignments and behind-the-scenes maneuvering by major businesses will likely be in full swing—an unfolding drama the international community will be watching closely. For local titans, claims of neutrality rarely hold. In every administration, "Presidential BFFs" emerge, often cornering policy favors and lucrative deals.

Such preferential treatment undermines confidence. Foreign capital hesitates when institutional co-optation allows a privileged few to control the rules of the game. This is precisely why investors demand a steep "risk premium" for the Philippines, where political entanglements make navigating the market far harder than in more business-savvy neighbors.

Without meaningful reforms to tame self-serving business backers, the Philippines will continue to lag in attracting foreign direct investment. When political loyalty outweighs expertise in government appointments, the nation’s prospects for a sustainable future are dangerously compromised.

The harsh truth is undeniable: while leaders elevate “yes-men,” truly talented Filipinos are building industries abroad—a painful reminder of misaligned priorities. We can only hope that one day, the Philippines sees the worth of its own brilliant minds before they make their mark elsewhere.