Fuel price relief may be short-lived by the last week of December, as geopolitical tensions persist in affecting supply transportation.

Based on four-day trading at Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), gasoline prices could remain at current levels or increase by ₱0.10 per liter, while diesel may rise by around ₱0.30 to ₱0.50 per liter.

Kerosene prices are also likely to increase by more or less ₱0.10 per liter.

Stricter sanctions from the United States (US) may have factored into next week’s price movements, according to the Department of Energy’s Oil Industry Management Bureau (DOE-OIMB) and Jetti Petroleum.

Rodela Romero, DOE-OIMB director, said the global oil market could face an oversupply, although geopolitical tensions involving Ukraine and Russia, as well as Venezuela, continue.

“The mixed or slightly downward pressure are attributed to the global oversupply coming from non-OPEC [Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] economies like the US, weak demand due to the winding down of holiday travel and seasonal industrial demand, and the uncertainty of the geopolitical tensions in Venezuela, Ukraine, and Russia,” she said.

Earlier this week, Venezuela achieved crude oil production of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the year amid pressure from the US.

Meanwhile, Jetti linked next week’s price movements to the continued strikes between Ukraine and Russia.

“Oil prices have been supported by geopolitical developments, as tougher US sanctions enforcement on Venezuela and intensified attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure have raised the risk of supply disruptions,” said Leo Bellas, Jetti president.

“Supporting prices as well is the prospect of a bigger supply risk due to new sanctions on Russia if Moscow does not agree to the Ukraine peace deal.”

On Christmas Day, Ukraine hit one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in Krasnodar region, as well as a gas processing plant in Orenburg, the largest of its kind near the Ukrainian border.