The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects the Philippines’ rice imports to decline by nearly 19 percent compared with the previous marketing year (MY) following the extension of the import ban until the end of the year.

In its grain and feed report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimated that Philippine rice imports would reach 4.4 million metric tons (MT) in MY 2025-2026, down from 5.4 million MT in MY 2024-2025.

The current MY began in July this year and will end in June of the following year.

The latest estimate is 12-percent lower than the USDA’s previous forecast of five million MT in September, when the government’s suspension of foreign rice purchases was still set at 60 days.

The adjusted projection takes into account the extension of the import ban from its original expiration on Oct. 31 to Dec. 31, 2025.

The USDA expects imports to continue declining based on the downward trajectory exhibited during the July-to-October period, when the country shipped only 969,570 MT, compared with 2.1 million MT in the same period last year.

Vietnam, the country’s top source, exported 879,266 MT to the Philippines during the period, down 48 percent from 1.7 million MT a year earlier.

The government will lift the four-month import ban in January, allowing the entry of 500,000 MT of rice, as it continues to protect farmers from the influx of cheaper imported rice.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel earlier said the government will adopt quantitative restrictions (QR) on foreign rice to ensure stable farmgate prices of unmilled rice, or palay.

Since these policies are not yet in place, the USDA expects the country’s rice imports in calendar year 2026 to reach 5.5 million MT.

For calendar year 2025, the foreign agency earlier revised its forecast down by 29 percent to 3.5 million MT from 4.9 million MT.

The USDA anticipates a slight decline in palay production for MY 2025-2026, settling at 19.6 million MT from 19.63 million MT in the previous MY.

Milled rice production is projected to reach 12.35 million MT in MY 2025-2026, compared with 12.37 million MT in MY 2024-2025.

The decline was attributed to typhoon-related losses in the fourth quarter and challenging post-harvest conditions faced by farmers.

The USDA maintained its rice consumption forecast at 17.6 million MT, noting that there is no significant shift toward other carbohydrate sources such as bread or pasta.

“The growing demand for rice is primarily driven by population growth, moderate inflation, and rising income levels,” the report said.

The country’s average rice consumption stands at around 37,000 MT per day.