Even as the gap narrowed by over 90 percent in November, the Philippines’ balance of payments (BOP) deficit continued to widen in the first 11 months to $4.83 billion, reversing the $2.12-billion surplus seen in the same period last year.

The latest data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) last Friday, Dec. 19, showed that the BOP, which reflects the country’s transactions with the rest of the world, narrowed to a $225-million deficit last month from the $2.28-billion deficit recorded in November last year.

Month-on-month, the end-November BOP position reversed from a $706-million surplus in the previous month.

As of end-November, the country’s United States (US) dollar stock, or gross international reserves (GIR), stood at $111.3 billion, 2.6-percent higher than the $108.5 billion recorded a year earlier.

According to the BSP, the current level of reserves is sufficient to safeguard the country’s external liquidity, equivalent to 7.4 months of imports and payments for services and primary income. It also provides coverage of about four times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual maturity.

Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the widening gap mirrors “strong import demand as the economy recovers, coupled with softer exports and remittances,” adding that “higher debt servicing and portfolio outflows amid global uncertainty” outweighed the gains from the narrowing deficit during the month alone.

From its earlier, narrower projection, the BSP now expects the country’s BOP deficit to widen this year and next year due to a growing trade-in-goods gap.

As of the third quarter, the BOP deficit was projected to widen to 1.4 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) from the 1.3-percent deficit the BSP had forecast in the second quarter of 2025.

This means that the $5.6-billion deficit recorded in the first half is expected to widen to $6.9 billion by year-end, up from the $6.3-billion gap the central bank had earlier projected.