Finance Secretary Frederick D. Go is crossing his fingers that the Philippines will eventually reach upper-middle-income country (UMIC) status by next year, pinning his hopes on the economy's continued growth.

Speaking to reporters last Thursday, Dec. 18, President Marcos’ chief economic manager said he is hopeful the country will transition from lower-middle-income status to UMIC in 2026, banking on the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) continuing to expand.

However, the finance chief said that hitting this target largely depends on the US dollar.

“One of the problems is that [reaching UMIC status] is defined in US dollars, so even if we grow in pesos, an unfavorable foreign exchange (forex) rate can work against us,” Go told reporters.

According to Go, the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee’s (DBCC) strategic approach is to boost GDP growth, get people back to work, and ensure they have sufficient earnings to meet the per capita income threshold set by the Washington-based World Bank.

National Socioeconomic Planner Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier said the Philippines could still meet the threshold for UMIC status by the end of 2025, even as the economy posted a lackluster performance in the third quarter at four percent.

Balisacan had earlier argued that five-percent growth for the full year still indicates a robust economic expansion.

According to the latest World Bank report, which will be updated in July 2026, the Philippines’ gross national income (GNI) per capita stood at $4,470 in 2024, setting a record high.

Last year’s GNI per capita stood closer to the multilateral lender’s lowered UMIC threshold of $4,496 to $13,935 for fiscal year (FY) 2026, due to the US dollar’s appreciation versus other currencies.

It can be recalled that the Philippines remained classified as a lower-middle-income country (LMIC). LMICs are those whose GNI per capita ranged between $1,136 and $4,495 in 2024.

GNI measures the total income generated by a country’s residents, both domestically and abroad, making it a broader indicator of economic performance than GDP, which accounts only for local output.