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PSEi to try to stay above 6,000 while watching for US economic data
Business
The Stock Market
PSEi to try to stay above 6,000 while watching for US economic data
PSEi to try to stay above 6,000 while watching for US economic data
Published Dec 15, 2025 12:00 am
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Updated Dec 13, 2025 05:01 pm
Local stock market investors will test whether the main index can stay above the 6,000 level, buoyed by positive sentiment from the United States Federal Reserve (US Fed) and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) rate cuts, but will also take cues from upcoming US economic data, including inflation and employment numbers.
“[This] week, the local market may test the validity of its breach of the 6,000 line. If it manages to hold its position above the said level, 6,000 will serve as its new support while its next resistance is seen at 6,150,” said Philstocks Financial Inc. research manager Japhet Tantiangco.
He noted, though, that, “Sustaining position above the said level remains questionable, however, amid lingering concerns and challenges over our economic growth outlook.”
This week, “investors are still expected to assess the local economy’s outlook,” he said, adding that, “While the latest monetary policy easing provides additional support, tempered consumer and investor confidence amid lingering corruption concerns may continue to weigh on economic activities. Investors are also expected to watch out for fresh leads for clues.”
“The outlook for the Philippine stock market [this] week appears cautiously optimistic, though the tone may be tempered by consolidation following the latest wave of central bank decisions,” said Globalinks Securities and Stocks Inc. head of sales Toby Allan Arce.
He noted that, “The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) may oscillate within a narrow range as it attempts to build a base above the 6,000 level, which remains both a technical and psychological battleground.”
The market’s near-term path is seen to depend on whether the momentum from the recent rebound can be sustained amid mixed external signals.
Optimism from the Fed’s rate cut and expectations of softer US inflation could buoy risk appetite globally, although lingering concerns about the Philippines’ governance issues, sluggish infrastructure spending, and tepid foreign direct investments (FDIs) could limit upside momentum.
The peso’s movement will also be critical, as any renewed weakness against the US dollar may dampen foreign investor participation.
Arce added that, “Holiday liquidity and year-end window dressing could inject some short-term buoyancy into trading volumes, particularly as fund managers rebalance portfolios and retail investors hunt for bargains.
“With inflation firmly below target and monetary policy remaining supportive, the market may find some stability through selective accumulation of fundamentally sound blue-chip names trading at deep discounts to historical valuations.”
China Bank Securities Corp. research director Rastine Mercado said, “We may see the index take pause early next week given the proximity to the 6,065 to 6,100 resistance. However, sustained positive sentiment could eventually provide momentum for a fresh rally—possibly toward the 6,200 level.”
“Near-term catalysts could stem from upcoming US data releases, which may impact expectations of further monetary policy easing. Nonetheless, prevailing investor concerns over more moderate economic growth prospects could lead to a protracted rally rather than a swift surge,” he noted.
Online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said, “Some tilt towards portfolios that are rate-sensitive may be optimal, while hedging consumer staples against holiday-season volatility.
“Position for 2026’s more dovish approach by overweighting quality growth names resilient to policy noise and stay flexible in allocations to navigate yield curve steepening. Holiday liquidity may lift sentiment, but be sure to balance macro tailwinds with micro discipline,” it advised.