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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider Weak but developing La Niña to persist until early 2026 — PAGASA

Weak but developing La Niña to persist until early 2026 — PAGASA

Published Dec 5, 2025 12:10 pm  |  Updated Dec 5, 2025 01:11 pm
PAGASA confirms the onset of a weak, short-lived La Niña, warning of above-normal rainfall, increased flood risks, and heightened cyclone activity from December 2025 to early 2026. (PAGASA / Manila Bulletin)
PAGASA confirms the onset of a weak, short-lived La Niña, warning of above-normal rainfall, increased flood risks, and heightened cyclone activity from December 2025 to early 2026. (PAGASA / Manila Bulletin)
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has announced the onset of a short-lived La Niña in the tropical Pacific, warning of above-normal rainfall, possible flooding, and heightened tropical cyclone activity in the coming months.
According to PAGASA’s La Niña Advisory No. 1, issued on December 4 and signed by PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel T. Servando, recent oceanic and atmospheric measurements confirm that La Niña conditions have developed, with sea surface temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific steadily cooling since September 2025.
By November, the temperatures had reached the weak La Niña threshold. “Based on the latest forecast, La Niña is likely to persist until the first quarter of 2026,” PAGASA said.
The agency added that the latest climate models indicate that La Niña will likely continue through the December 2025–February 2026 season, although it is expected to be short-lived.
“It is likely that this La Niña will continue at least until the December 2025 to February 2026 season, as suggested by several climate models,” PAGASA said.
A weak La Niña is characterized by a one-month sea surface temperature anomaly of –0.5°C or lower, with the corresponding three-month anomaly meeting the same threshold.
Above-normal rainfall, increased cyclone activity
The weather bureau warned that La Niña typically brings wetter-than-usual conditions across most parts of the Philippines, especially from the final quarter of the year to the early months of the following year.
“La Niña is usually associated with above-normal rainfall conditions across most areas of the country during the last quarter of the year and the early months of the following year,” PAGASA said.
With the transition to La Niña underway, PAGASA forecasts higher chances of above-normal rainfall from December 2025 to February 2026, raising the risks of floods, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides.
“Furthermore, an increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the period is likely,” the agency added. 

Related Tags

La Niña Philippines PAGASA La Niña Advisory above-normal rainfall forecast tropical cyclone activity La Niña effects Philippines weather update December 2025 PAGASA
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