A cloudy outlook is emerging on the investigation of the Independent Commission for Infrastructure (ICI) following the resignation of former Public Works and Highways Secretary Rogelio “Babes” Singson.

The timing of the announcement was skillfully done, as it came after the closing bell for the day at the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) as well as the trading at the spot currency market.

For this staunch market observer, any change of this magnitude influences and has ripple effects on equities and foreign exchange trading—it could heighten selling because it speaks of uncertainty and credibility.

And from the standpoint of one of my market gurus: the real question isn’t Mr. Babes’ exit itself. The nagging question is “whether the ICI’s work continues uninterrupted and credibly.”

It also came three days after the Nov. 30 “trillion peso march,” with protesters seeking transparency in the ICI’s investigation into those involved in the flood gate mess, believed to be the worst corruption scandal to date.

Otherwise, Mr. Babes’ resignation would have been the rallying point and main focus of the discourse during the rally. I fully subscribe to the observation of Philippine Business Bank President Roland Avante that the former DPWH Secretary during President Noynoy Aquino’s term was “gentlemanly and considerate” enough to disclose his leaving the position shortly after the closing of the financial markets on Wednesday, as well as after the second “trillion peso march” on Sunday.

But even prior to the announcement, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) had been sliding, and the peso continued to suffer beatings versus the almighty greenback.

In fact, notwithstanding the uncertainty surrounding the ICI, stocks dropped to “a two-week low on Wednesday on increased selling pressure due to the peso’s weakness against the dollar and economic concerns.”

And as I write this, the weakness of the peso continued, breaching back to the P59 level with an opening quote of P58.95—a good 20 centavos drop from the weighted average rate of P58.75. Shortly after, the pressure built up, with the local currency breaking the ₱59 barrier at ₱59.09 to a dollar.

The whispers in the banking corridor are that the weakness of the peso will prevail until the replacement of Mr. Babes, who will stay until the middle of the month—Dec. 15. That is an auspicious date, as it falls on the same day that the ICI promised to issue arrest warrants against lawmakers and officials involved in the flood control mess.

This is the second time the ICI has been faced with resignation bombs. On Sept. 26, just barely two weeks after President Marcos, Jr. constituted the fact-finding commission, Baguio City Mayor Benjamin Magalong threw in the towel as special adviser and investigator due to alleged “conflict of interest.”

For my market gurus—Andro Leo “Andoy” Beltran of First Metro Securities Brokerage Corp. and Certified Financial Analyst Jonathan “Jonas” Ravelas—while this development “is notable but not necessarily jarring,” it “casts a shadow of doubt moving forward.”

Looking back, Mayor Magalong’s resignation “caused a stir mostly on the perception and governance side. His exit raised doubts about the independence and cohesion of the ICI, which momentarily unsettled confidence in the body’s ability to carry out investigations.”

However, the ripple effect of Mayor Magalong’s departure was fleeting because “the government quickly named ex-PNP Chief Rodolfo Azurin, Jr. as replacement,” which in turn “helped stabilize expectations—reinforcing that the ICI’s mandate continues despite individual departures.”

From this standpoint, the departure of Mr. Babes, which takes effect on December 15, suggests a “transition” for whoever will be his replacement, and such speaks volumes on the “continuity and the preservation of institutional integrity” of the ICI.

“Unless it signals a deeper disruption in the administration’s infrastructure agenda or governance, or if it's rooted in the ICI's lack of independence, it’s likely to stay as a headline event rather than a trigger for market volatility,” Mr. Andoy laments.

Though from where I stand, the horizon looks foggy, and the wheels of justice and business continue to grind. I’m one with the market sentiment for the Palace to appoint “someone tested and with high credibility,” in the stature of former Bureau of Internal Revenue Commissioner Kim Henares, who of late was among the candidates for Ombudsman.

But for now, ballroom dancing has to wait for Mr. Babes.