The Philippines is expected to miss its full-year economic growth target for 2025, following the sharp slowdown in the third quarter amid a worsening corruption scandal, the country’s chief economist conceded on Monday, Dec. 1.

Missing this year’s goal will make it three years in a row for the Marcos Jr. administration, which also fell short of achieving the gross domestic product (GDP) targets for 2023 and 2024.

Speaking at the 2025 year-end press chat of the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev), Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said that reaching even the lower end of the government’s 2025 target is “very unlikely.”

The government had already downscaled its 2025 growth goal to a range of 5.5 to 6.5 percent, from an originally more ambitious six to eight percent.

To recall, GDP growth fell sharply to four percent in the third quarter, the slowest quarterly expansion in 4.5 years, mainly as government spending on public goods and services was tempered in the aftermath of the infrastructure corruption scandal involving billions of pesos worth of “ghost” and substandard flood control projects.

“We need to grow roughly seven percent in the fourth quarter to achieve a 5.5-percent growth target,” Balisacan said. “Given the situations and the data that are coming out, that’s quite unlikely.”

Balisacan highlighted that the first three quarters have delivered an average of five-percent growth. He said, “If we can sustain that five percent for a year, that’s still, to me, quite respectable.”

“So even as the performance of the economy has slowed down this year, comparatively, our economy is still one of the best-performing economies in the region,” he added.

The DEPDev chief said that successfully addressing infrastructure corruption challenges in a way that strengthens the foundations for long-term growth would lead to an even more favorable outcome.

“What we really want is a growth that is sustainable over a long period of time, that’s more resilient, that’s more inclusive. Only then can we afford our fellow Filipinos a better future because we have to catch up with our neighbors,” he added.

Balisacan emphasized the importance of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. unraveling flood-control corruption during his State of the Nation Address (SONA) last July, stressing that it was “very significant because it opens up the awareness of the public, and the issues that we are facing, and the issues that we need to address promptly, quickly.”

“So the top leadership is very aware of that decision, and you can see the ramification of that now with all these key government officials separated from, the removed... or the resignations accepted, reorganizations in Congress and so on,” he added.

Last month, amid the widening corruption scandal that prompted resignations of top government officials, a reshuffle took place within the administration’s economic team.

Balisacan also added that, “what we want to ensure is that the economic gains that we have achieved are sustained and they are not going to be eroded by these developments.”

Balisacan said that the government aims to return to the top tier of the fastest-growing Asian economies next year.

The government, through the Cabinet-level, interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), has set its annual GDP growth target at six to seven percent for 2026 to 2028.

(Ricardo M. Austria)