The holiday season is bringing relief to some motorists as diesel prices are set for a big-time rollback starting Tuesday, Dec. 2, even as gasoline costs edge up.

Diesel will decrease by ₱2.90 per liter, while gasoline prices will climb by ₱0.20 per liter, reversing the previous week’s reduction. Kerosene will drop by ₱3.2 per liter.

Major players including Seaoil, Shell Pilipinas, PetroGazz, and Caltex are scheduled to implement the adjustments at 6 a.m. on Tuesday. CleanFuel will follow suit at 8:01 a.m.

The deep cuts in diesel and kerosene follow speculation last week from analysts at the Department of Energy-Oil Industry Management Bureau and Jetti Petroleum Inc. that a potential end to the Ukraine-Russia war could alleviate global supply pressures by leading to the possible lifting of sanctions on Russian oil exports. Asian buyers like China and India remain key importers of Russian crude.

The possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough gained traction Monday, with reports from the U.S. and Ukraine confirming ongoing peace talks.

Providing a counter-balance to the optimistic war news is escalating tension between the U.S. and Venezuela, which could threaten Venezuelan crude exports to China.

“This escalation between the U.S. and Venezuela has the U.S. carrying out strikes on boats it claims are carrying drugs, while also building its military presence nearby,” ING said in a report. “Venezuela exports around 800,000 barrels per day (b/d), of which most of the crude oil will head to China. Clearly, any further escalation puts this supply at risk.”

Separately, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced it would maintain its current output levels for the first quarter of next year, citing an expected rise in seasonal demand.

The group will also “review the maximum sustainable production capacity of members, which will serve as a reference for 2027 production baselines,” the report added.