The World Bank has flagged the delayed rollout of the most crucial activity—seismic retrofitting—for its soon-to-expire project loan aimed at protecting public schools and health facilities from “The Big One” earthquake that threatens to hit Metro Manila.

In a Nov. 20 implementation status and results report for the Philippines Seismic Risk Reduction and Resilience Project, seen by Manila Bulletin, the Washington-based multilateral lender downgraded overall implementation progress to “moderately unsatisfactory” from “moderately satisfactory” previously.

To recall, the Philippines borrowed $300 million from the World Bank in 2021 for this project, implemented by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), which aims not only to fortify the safety and seismic resilience of over 400 government buildings—including health centers and schools—in National Capital Region (NCR) by retrofitting them, but also to enhance the agency's capacity to prepare for and respond to earthquake emergencies.

While the World Bank’s investment project financing (IPF) for the project is set to close on June 30, 2026, only $62.98 million, or 20.99 percent of the total loan, has been disbursed to date.

“The seismic retrofitting of public schools and health facilities, which will save lives in the event of ‘The Big One,’ has yet to start,” the World Bank lamented, noting that civil works contracts for the initial batch of buildings would be signed by April of next year, or just two months before the loan closing date.

As Manila Bulletin reported earlier, the World Bank, back in May, had an August 2025 timeline for the award of civil work contracts for the first batch of buildings.

With only eight months to go before the available financing ends, the World Bank disclosed that “potential project restructuring is being discussed with relevant departments and is subject to accelerated implementation progress.”

So far, positive developments have been noted in the project’s enhancement of the DPWH’s capacity for emergency response, equipping the agency with 124 heavy equipment units to restore mobility and transport in Metro Manila after a natural disaster, the lender said.

World Bank estimates show that “The Big One”—a strong, magnitude-7.2 earthquake feared to strike along West Valley Fault—could cause about 48,000 fatalities and $48 billion in economic losses.

In November last year, the World Bank also flagged “the persistent lack of budget cover” for the project.

This issue of zero or late budget releases—caused by the inclusion of many foreign-assisted projects in unprogrammed appropriations (UAs) of the annual national budget in recent years, notably during the Marcos Jr. administration—has also caused delays in the implementation of other World Bank-funded projects, such as the Philippines Digital Infrastructure Project and Teacher Effectiveness and Competencies Enhancement Project (TEACEP), among others.

UAs are not part of regular budget items and rely on extra revenues or additional borrowings.

In the case of TEACEP, the Philippines and the World Bank this month agreed to amend the terms of the IPF for this Department of Education (DepEd) project, adjusting the 12 performance-based conditions (PBCs) and loan amount allocations, following a restructuring requested by the Department of Finance (DOF) last September.

The government is also rushing to complete a delayed flood control project covering Metro Manila, co-funded by the World Bank and the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), before the loan financing ends next year.