Despite hitting an eight-month high in October, the Philippines’ balance of payments (BOP) position remained at a yawning deficit in the first 10 months at $4.61 billion, a full swing from a surplus of $4.39 billion in the same period last year.

The latest data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed that the BOP, which reflects the country’s transactions with the rest of the world, reversed to a $706-million surplus from a $724-million deficit in October last year.

According to the BSP, last month’s BOP surplus reflected the country’s “improved” external accounts.

As of end-October, the country’s United States (US) dollar stock, or gross international reserves (GIR), stood at $110.2 billion from $111.1 billion a year ago.

The central bank said the current level of reserves is still enough to protect the country’s external liquidity, equal to 7.4 months of imports and payments for services and primary income. It also provides coverage of about 3.8 times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual maturity.

Month-on-month, the cumulative BOP deficit narrowed by 13.3 percent to $4.61 billion as of end-October from $5.32 billion at end-September.

SM Investments Corp. (SMIC) group economist Robert Dan Roces said the October surplus was driven by strong inflows from the national government’s (NG) external financing and seasonal support from remittances and business process outsourcing (BPO) revenues.

“On top of that, import growth has softened, which naturally narrows the trade gap and helps the balance,” Roces added.

For Roces, the BOP should stay broadly stable, but foreign exchange (forex) stability will still hinge on US policy easing, oil prices, and how quickly exports recover.

He added that the risk now is “less about liquidity and more about sentiment—any flare-up in geopolitics or tariffs can easily swing the monthly numbers.”