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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider The Economy devider Gasoline, diesel seen rising by over ₱1/liter next week

Gasoline, diesel seen rising by over ₱1/liter next week

Published Nov 14, 2025 09:51 am
Photo by Mark Balmores | MB
Photo by Mark Balmores | MB
Oil prices are set to rise next week, driven by stronger global demand, seasonal maintenance at downstream facilities, and the recent conclusion of the United States (US) government shutdown.
Based on the four-day Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) average, gasoline prices are projected to increase by around ₱1.3 per liter, while diesel could rise by ₱1 to ₱1.2 per liter. Kerosene prices are also expected to climb by approximately ₱1 per liter. Oil companies typically finalize and announce price adjustments on Monday.
The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Oil Industry Management Bureau (OIMB) noted that the reopening of US federal agencies following a 43-day government shutdown would likely influence next week’s price movements.
“Early part of the week, prices of petroleum products in the international market see-saw due to the latest US sanctions on Russian oil and the optimism over [the] end to the US government shutdown,” said Rodela Romero, OIMB director.
The shutdown ended after US President Donald Trump signed a funding package allowing government agencies to resume operations. The move signaled stronger economic activity, which in turn impacts oil demand.
“But this was capped off by a prediction that rising supply will outweigh demand,” Romero added.
However, industry executives are seeing tighter supply fundamentals.
Leo Bellas, president of Jetti Petroleum, said that supply constraints are likely in some regions due to ongoing Russian sanctions and refinery works.
“Diesel and middle distillate prices stay supported on tighter fundamentals as supply remains capped due to refinery turnarounds, and with growing concerns that Western sanctions on Russian oil could further disrupt trade flows,” Bellas elaborated.
Bellas also projected tighter gasoline supply, citing rising demand, inventory drawdowns, and falling exports from major producers due to refinery outages and maintenance.
“Further upside to prices are expected to be capped as supply tightness is seen to gradually ease with refineries returning from the seasonal turnaround,” the Jetti executive shared.
Separately, ING Economics reported Friday that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is anticipating a large oil surplus next year, which could add to the market’s bearish stock outlook. US crude inventories have simultaneously expanded by 6.4 million barrels.

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