While oil prices are still expected to climb once more, motorists are about to experience a sense of relief at the gas pumps next week, as analysts projected a potential rollback for gasoline.

Based on the four-day trading at Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) and the foreign exchange (forex) average, gasoline could see a price cut of around ₱0.10 to ₱0.35 per liter, while diesel may continue its price spike by around ₱0.30 to ₱0.70 per liter.

Kerosene prices are also expected to rise by more or less ₱0.35 per liter.

The potential price decrease for gasoline is attributed to an expected increase in supply, according to the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Oil Industry Management Bureau (OIMB).

Rodela Romero, OIMB director, explained that the market is looking “bearish,” as Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies are set to increase their production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month, with plans to halt output increases by the first quarter of 2026.

Jetti Petroleum also said China’s new export quotas are helping bring gasoline prices down, but the drop is limited by refinery turnarounds and unplanned outages in Asia.

While this may be an optimistic outlook, Romero added that, “A combination of Ukraine’s drone attack to Russia’s Black Seaport, its major export hub, and sanctions contributed to the increases [in diesel and kerosene].”

Ukraine reportedly struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Volgograd region, which is allegedly part of the country’s efforts to weaken Moscow’s energy revenue amid continued hostilities.

On top of this, the sanctions that already exist against Russia are putting pressure on its two large oil companies, which eventually pushed some Asian buyers, particularly India and China, to withdraw their purchases before Nov. 21.

As diesel and kerosene prices are likely to increase, Jetti President Leo Bellas added that this could be due to tighter supply brought by maintenance works.

“An increase in Singapore diesel price markers reflects tightening supply due to reduced outflows from northeast Asia amid refinery maintenance shutdowns, with inventories remaining on the lean side for the near term as major regional refiners could potentially reduce output should producers lose access to cheaper Russian crude,” he elaborated.