Despite a strong export performance in the first nine months of 2025, Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. Ltd. (OCBC) expects sales of Philippine-made goods overseas to weaken moving forward.

“Looking ahead, we expect the strong momentum of the export sector to lose steam in the quarters ahead due to softer global demand,” OCBC said in a Nov. 3 report.

The Singaporean bank cited that Philippine export growth eased to 12.8 percent year-on-year at end-September from 16.2 percent in the second quarter.

“Higher agriculture (29.4-percent year-on-year [growth] versus 19.7 percent in August), and manufactured (15.9-percent [growth] versus 2.3 percent) goods exports supported September exports while mineral products exports eased to 8.9-percent year-on-year [growth] from 25 percent in August,” it noted.

While the United States (US) remained as the top destination of Philippine products, OCBC said export growth to the US “[remains] volatile.”

Last week, Manila Bulletin reported that despite global trade uncertainties stemming from US tariffs, the Philippines’ merchandise exports from January to September 2025 hit a nine-month record high, with the US still the No. 1 market.

The latest preliminary Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data showed that the country’s goods exports at end-September totaled $63.02 billion, while imports reached $100.2 billion.

National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa had told Manila Bulletin that merchandise exports in the first nine months of the year posted the highest end-September level on record.

Mapa added that imports from January to September this year recorded the highest nine-month value since 2022.

The country’s merchandise exports in September reached $7.25 billion, up 15.9 percent year-on-year.

The US was the Philippines’ top export destination last September, with shipments valued at $1.11 billion, accounting for 15.3 percent of the country’s total goods exports that month.

Meanwhile, the country’s imports in September totaled $11.6 billion, 2.1 percent higher year-on-year.

China remained the Philippines’ No. 1 import source that month, with goods valued at $3.29 billion, accounting for 28.4 percent of total imports. The Philippines is a net importer of the goods it consumes.

Back in June, the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordinating Committee (DBCC) conceded that goods exports would likely decline by two percent this year, “largely due to slower global demand and heightened trade policy uncertainties”—reversing the government’s previous six-percent growth expectations prior to the world trade tensions started by US President Donald Trump at the start of the year when he returned to office for a second term.

On the other hand, the DBCC expects goods imports to grow by 3.5 percent this year “due to resilient domestic economic activity,” despite a downscaled 5.5- to 6.5-percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for the year in a mostly consumption-driven economy.

The DBCC’s latest imports growth projection is below the five-percent increase expected previously.