US dollar-allied Asian currencies like Philippine peso 'less' resilient amid stronger greenback—DBS
Currencies of Asian countries allied with the United States (US), like the Philippine peso, depreciated the most against the US dollar in October, according to Singapore-based DBS Bank Ltd.
“In Asia, the BRICS currencies—Chinese yuan, Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, and Thai baht—were significantly more resilient than the US-allied currencies such as Japanese yen, South Korean won, and Philippine peso,” DBS Group Research senior foreign exchange (FX) strategist Philip Wee said in a report on Friday, Oct. 31.
BRICS, which stands for the group of major emerging economies Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has been expanding to include other emerging markets (EMs) and is reportedly developing a common currency to challenge the US dollar’s dominance and advance dedollarization efforts.
“[October’s] top BRICS currencies were the baht and ringgit, which staged a late comeback this week on the Fed’s [US Federal Reserve] rate cut and the Xi-Trump agreement to extend the trade truce for another year,” DBS said, referring to Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump.
On the flip side, DBS noted that the yen was weakest US-allied currency as it depreciated by four percent versus the greenback during the month, while the won weakened to a five-month low last Oct. 23 before stabilizing when Trump visited Asia, including South Korea for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit.
As for the peso, DBS recalled that the Philippine currency fell to a historic low of ₱59.13 against the US dollar on Tuesday, Oct. 28.
“However, the peso’s new low was only slightly above previous lows seen around ₱59 in 2022 and 2024,” DBS noted, adding that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) had “reiterated that it intervenes to moderate long-term volatility, emphasizing that the peso remains supported by its sound fundamentals.”
DBS further recalled that following the Fed’s final rate hike in July 2022, the peso fluctuated between the ₱55 and ₱59 levels.
In an Oct. 29 report, DBS Group Research senior economist Radhika Rao noted that the peso’s plunge last Tuesday “bucked the regional trend... amid signs of restrained intervention to derail the one-sided move.”
Rao said that while the peso is among the region’s year-to-date underperformers, structural supports such as remittances, services trade, and reforms are expected to aid recovery over time.
“Our in-house FX forecast leans toward a weaker US dollar providing some relief to Asian currencies by year-end,” she added.
However, Rao cautioned that Philippine economic growth “might be hurt by ongoing corruption allegations in past flood infrastructure-related spending.”
She cited that former BSP governor and current Monetary Board Member (MBM) Benjamin E. Diokno had signaled possible interest rate cuts in December amid dovish central bank guidance and a weak growth outlook, while also hinting at trimming the country’s “excessive” gold reserves to align with regional norms.
Meanwhile, MUFG Global Markets Research senior currency analyst Lloyd Chan noted that in an Oct. 31 report that “Asian currencies have weakened against the US dollar following hawkish rhetoric by Fed Chair [Jerome] Powell,” with regional losses led by the yen, won, and rupee.
In an earlier Oct. 30 report, Chan said the Fed’s rate cut this week weighed on the region’s currencies.
For Chan, “high-yielding currencies such as the rupiah, rupee, and peso could stay under pressure.”