Private-sector economists said the Philippine peso is unlikely to fall to the ₱60 level against the United States (US) dollar, as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) closely monitors developments that could warrant intervention or an adjustment in its easing cycle to support the local currency.

Oikonomia Advisory and Research Inc. economist Reinielle Matt Erece said the peso dropping to the ₱60:$1 level appears “unlikely, as we may see major interventions from the central bank to avoid further capital outflows.”

“We may also see a readjustment in the monetary policy easing schedule to account for the continued depreciation of the peso,” Erece added. It can be recalled that the BSP shifted to a more dovish tone recently, signaling further cuts after the fourth quarter-point cut in October to 4.75 percent.

Reyes Tacandong & Co. senior adviser Jonathan Ravelas said the market should expect the BSP to “act decisively if global shocks worsen or volatility spikes.”

Ravelas noted that the peso hitting ₱60 is “probable, but not a done deal,” given that the central bank “has the firepower to defend the peso, and our core fundamentals are still solid.”

“What’s weighing us down is uncertainty—especially from the floodgate scandal and tariff issues, which caused the dollar to strengthen,” he said. The BSP earlier said the recent drop in the peso could mean that the market is reacting to the potential moderation in economic expansion, partly due to the flood control mess.

SM Investments Corp. (SMIC) chief economist Robert Dan Roces said the BSP monitors the pace of depreciation more than the exact level.

“So far, it seems to be a slow drift toward the psychological level of ₱60, if at all,” Roces said.

Meanwhile, the peso could “realistically” breach the ₱60:$1 mark if capital flight persists due to corruption in the government and slower remittance inflows, said John Paolo Rivera, senior research fellow at state think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS).

“I am still hoping that holiday-induced remittances can mitigate further depreciation to avoid inflationary pressures,” Rivera said, despite the central bank’s reluctance to intervene in the foreign exchange (forex) market.

Emilio S. Neri Jr., senior vice president and lead economist at Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI), believes hitting the ₱60 level is “unlikely until we cross November.”

Neri said the central bank might view the recent depreciation as “tolerable,” especially with consumer prices remaining at “manageable” levels.

“It might not be a concern from their perspective as long as the inflation forecast for the next two years remains within the target,” Neri said. The BSP aims to keep inflation within the two- to four-percent range.

He added that allowing the local currency to weaken could be a strategic move, as a softer peso may bolster economic growth and household spending by increasing the value of remittances.

However, he said the peso may have weakened too much, too quickly, suggesting it could soon stabilize or slightly recover.

Although the peso showed further weakness on Wednesday, Oct. 29, after hitting its historic low of ₱59.13 on Tuesday, Oct. 28, it managed to close stronger at ₱58.69 against the greenback.

It reached an intraday high of ₱58.58:$1 after opening at ₱58.73:$1 on Thursday, Oct. 30, according to the Bankers Association of the Philippines (BAP). Its intraday low stood at ₱58.83:$1 as of Thursday afternoon.