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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider Up to 5 more cyclones may develop before year-end, says PAGASA

Up to 5 more cyclones may develop before year-end, says PAGASA

La Niña conditions to bring more rains, flood risk until early 2026

Published Oct 29, 2025 01:05 pm
PAGASA
PAGASA
Three to five tropical cyclones may enter or develop within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) before the end of 2025, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Wednesday, Oct. 29.
During PAGASA’s monthly climate forum, weather specialist Joey Figuracion said two or three cyclones are expected in November, while one or two may develop in December.
“The forecast tracks of tropical cyclones in November and December are generally lower, which means there’s a higher chance that these may cross land or make landfall,” Figuracion said.
“However, there are also some systems that may recurve away from the country,” he added.
Nineteen tropical cyclones have entered the PAR so far this year.
The next names on PAGASA’s list are Tino, Uwan, Verbena, Wilma, and Yasmin.
Figuracion also said La Niña conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific, referring to a developing phase not yet at full La Niña strength.
“Climate models show a 77 percent chance of La Niña forming between October and December 2025, which may persist until February 2026 before returning to a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition,” he said.
The short-lived La Niña episode may bring above-normal rainfall until early 2026.
It may also increase the likelihood of tropical cyclone activity within the PAR, which, combined with other rain-bearing weather systems, could lead to floods, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides in vulnerable areas.

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE LA NIÑA
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