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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider The Economy devider New estimates: Diesel up ₱2.1, gasoline up ₱1.2 next week

New estimates: Diesel up ₱2.1, gasoline up ₱1.2 next week

Published Oct 25, 2025 11:50 am  |  Updated Oct 25, 2025 01:05 pm
(Photos by John Louie Abrina I MB)
(Photos by John Louie Abrina I MB)
Motorists face a costly close to October as new projections indicated a hefty fuel price hike on Tuesday, with diesel set to climb by up to ₱2 per liter and gasoline by over ₱1 due to mounting sanctions on Russia.
Based on Jetti Petroleum's final projections, diesel prices are expected to range from ₱1.90 to ₱2.10 per liter. Gasoline is also estimated to increase in price by ₱1 to ₱1.20 per liter.
Jetti President Leo Bellas explained that the recent sanctions on Russia have shaken the global oil market, potentially affecting supply and transportation.
“Main reason is worries that the new sanctions by the US (United States) on Russia’s two biggest oil companies will have significant implications on the Asian market as Chinese state oil majors are set to suspend Russian oil purchases and refiners in India are preparing to sharply cut Russian crude imports,” he said on Viber.
To recall, the United States (US) imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil in an effort to negotiate peace talks to end the war with Ukraine. According to ING Economics, these two companies produce over five million barrels per day of crude oil. This is about 50 percent of the country’s total oil production, and having penalties from the US could signal a large oil market disruption.
“These latest sanctions are set to come into full effect on 21 November 2025, allowing a wind-down of transactions with both Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as with any subsidiaries in which they hold 50 percent or more ownership,” ING reported.
As a result, Asian importers of Russian oil have reduced their purchases, which could prompt these countries to seek alternative supply sources and alter the existing supply transport.
The think tank expects more buyers to seek alternatives from the Middle East, as it said, “This is evident when looking at the Brent-Dubai spread, which has collapsed since the sanctions' announcement (driven by strength in the Dubai benchmark).”
Last week, gasoline saw an incremental increase by ₱0.10 per liter, while diesel had its first rollback in weeks by ₱0.70 per liter.
Kerosene last week had also gone down by ₱0.60 per liter; however, the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Oil Industry Management Bureau (OIMB) predicts that next week could see an increase of around ₱0.80 per liter.
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