The Philippines is experiencing a continued decline in Chinese visitors, with visa restrictions and recent high-profile incidents cited as key factors by think tank Oxford Economics.

“In the Philippines, visa policy is likely the culprit,” said Adam Ahmad Samdin, economist at Oxford Economics, in a report on Friday, Oct. 24.

The Philippines, India, Taiwan, and Thailand were considered by Oxford Economics as having the poorest-performing tourism sectors in Asia-Pacific, with arrivals still below pre-pandemic levels due to “the continued absence of Chinese tourists.”

Oxford Economics data showed that the share of Chinese visitors to the Philippines fell below 10 percent of total in 2024 and 2025, down from 20 percent in 2019.

The think tank highlighted that the suspension of electronic visas for Chinese nationals—set to end in November—has partly contributed to the slowdown.

It added that recent travel advisories following high-profile arrests of Chinese nationals in the Philippines, along with the closure of local gambling operations popular among Chinese tourists, have also contributed to the slow recovery of tourism in the country.

Despite the drop in Chinese visitor arrivals, Oxford Economics noted that average inflation-adjusted foreign spending per capita in the Philippines rose by over 20 percent to nearly $1,500 per tourist in 2024, up from over $1,000 in 2019, bucking the regional trend of stagnant or lower average spend per visitor.

Oxford Economics attributed the higher spending of tourists visiting the Philippines to their longer-than-average stays.

The think tank also emphasized that Chinese travel preferences are shifting, with domestic tourism gaining sophistication and popularity following a surge during the Covid-19 pandemic.

It added that more Chinese citizens are opting for domestic travel rather than going abroad, meaning they are no longer contributing to the growth of Asian tourism sectors as they did in 2019.

Oxford Economics reported that, while overall tourist arrivals in Asia excluding China showed strong gains in August for both Chinese and non-Chinese travelers, the Philippines—along with India, Thailand, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore—remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

“We don’t expect Chinese tourist arrivals to Asia to accelerate substantially next year,” the think tank said, noting that this outlook is based on forecasts that real income growth in China is unlikely to rise in 2026, the growing preference among Chinese travelers for domestic tourism, and the fact that most Asian countries already offer visa-free travel for Chinese tourists.

“We don’t expect outbound travel to pick up sharply, especially with the weak macro backdrop,” it added.

However, the think tank noted a potential upside in the rise of Chinese business travel, driven partly by supply chain realignments and the offshoring of Chinese manufacturing.

“And for those Chinese travelers who do head abroad, the overwhelming preference remains for destinations within Asia,” the think tank said.

(Ricardo M. Austria)