Public fury over flood control corruption and the toll of recent typhoons appear to have choked consumer confidence, potentially dragging the Philippines’ economic growth to a below-target 5.2 percent in the third quarter of the year.

According to the latest edition of the University of Asia and the Pacific’s (UA&P) report, the economy, as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP), likely cooled to 5.2 percent in the quarter ending September.

UA&P’s projected slowdown follows the 5.5 percent second quarter expaction, matching the growth rate seen in the third quarter of 2024.

“We expect tepid GDP growth of 5.2 percent in the third quarter after a spate of typhoons and negative sentiments due to the flood control corruption issue,” UA&P Senior Economist Dr. Victor Abola and Economist Marco Antonio Agonia said.

However, the economists still “expect this to speed up to 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter as the economy appears to mend.”

Despite the 19-percent tariffs that United States (US) President Donald Trump slapped on Philippine exports, August exports growth remained “steady.” This comes despite a sluggish expansion of 4.6 percent, following the previously double-digit pace.

Looking ahead, UA&P still believes the country’s economic output will accelerate at a rate of 5.5 percent, which is the lower end of the government’s revised target.

Among other upside risks, UA&P cited still-tame inflation in September despite increasing to 1.7 percent. It remained below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) target band of two to four percent.

Total employment recovered in August to 50.1 million, driving the jobless rate down to 3.9 percent from 5.3 percent a month ago.

UA&P expects remittances from overseas Filipinos to post “solid” growth in the fourth quarter.

To recall, cash sent home by overseas Filipinos declined to $2.98 billion in August from the July peak, but the seasonal remittance surge in the fourth quarter is expected to lift inflows for the remainder of the year.

Total cash remittances in August were 3.2 percent higher than the $2.89 billion recorded in August last year.

Earlier, the BSP lowered its growth projections for 2025 and 2026 to below 5.5 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. The central bank had previously projected GDP growth to clock in at a below-target 5.6 percent in 2026.

National Socioeconomic Planner Arsenio M. Balisacan also remained upbeat about hitting the country’s growth goal but flagged a slowdown in government spending and tightening supply as risks that could hamper growth acceleration.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto also conceded that the Philippines may miss even the lower end of the full-year goal.