The debate continues on the extent of the damage the flood control mess has inflicted on the market value of listed companies, with estimates of the loss ranging from a low of ₱185 billion to a high of ₱5 trillion.
Admittedly, regardless of the exact figure, the anomalies plaguing the country’s flood control projects have dampened investor confidence, driving the downward spin in the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi).
Despite this, the joint forces of tycoons Manuel V. Pangilinan and Isidro Consunji, president and chief executive officer of DMCI Holdings, are pushing through with Maynilad’s initial public offering (IPO) this November.
Yes, Virginia, it’s all systems go for the IPO of Maynilad, Southeast Asia's largest water concessionaire serving over 10 million customers, even amid the very challenging market conditions created by the ongoing flood gate mess saga.
It's been a long time coming. The Maynilad IPO is a regulatory compliance requirement. Comparatively, the East Zone concessionaire, Manila Water, which is majority-owned by tycoon Enrique K. Razon’s Trident Water Holdings Company, Inc., completed its mandatory requirement 20 years ago.
While it’s understandable that political uncertainty and corruption in the flood control projects are eroding and tainting investor confidence, a muted banking source intimated that this early, Maynilad, which has yet to set its final offer price, has already “attracted a number of institutional investors” for the sale of its 2.3 billion shares.
Some market analysts expect the price per share to be between ₱15 and ₱20. Considering that the current average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio ranges between eight and nine percent compared to the regional P/E of 17 to 18 percent, “Maynilad is a good buy. It’s a good stock to add to one's portfolio,” certified financial analyst Jonas Ravelas stated.
Now, here’s the thing: the buzz going around the banking alley is that a good portion of the money to be raised from the IPO, estimated to hit over ₱45 billion, will be used to purchase the Villar-owned PrimeWater.
Remember, former senator Cynthia Villar previously intimated that her husband, former Senate President Manny Villar, was toying with the idea of selling PrimeWater, which of late has been marred by controversy due to mounting complaints on its service areas.
While I salute Maynilad for pushing through with the IPO despite the political and market uncertainty, mum's the word on the IPO of mobile wallet service market leader, GCash.
As early as July, this corner of the Business Corridor wrote about the possibility that GCash’s IPO would be pushed back sometime in the fourth quarter because of the impasse on the price valuation.
The latest I heard was that there was no discussion about the new IPO schedule during the board meeting last Wednesday. “There’s a lot of uncertainty on the business side, not to mention, the political situation that is affecting the business condition. And, nobody inquired on the new IPO schedule,” said a muted source.
GCash IPO is a red, as in stop, for now.
The management, meanwhile, is conducting a thorough evaluation of the impact of e-games on its expected revenues. This stems from the directive of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) for all BSP-Supervised Institutions, including GCash, to remove links providing in-app gambling access from their payment apps and websites to curtail access to online gambling.
From what I’ve gathered, the removal of the online gambling links has dented the revenue stream of GCash. Some market analysts believe the revenue squeeze could be between 14 and 16 percent.
Should this be the case, the GCash management's aspiration to up the market valuation of the IPO per share will be negatively influenced. “The pricing of the share will impact with the dent on the income contribution of e-games,” said a market source familiar with the issue.
As the wheels of business continue to churn, let’s see how these two market-moving activities play out.
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