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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider Banking & Finance devider Peso to stay soft as flood control corruption scandal weighs—ING

Peso to stay soft as flood control corruption scandal weighs—ING

Published Oct 16, 2025 12:40 pm
Dutch financial giant ING expects the Philippine peso to weaken in the near to medium term as financial markets remain jittery in the aftermath of the flood control scandal that exposed the misuse of public funds.
In an Oct. 13 report, ING forecast the peso to reach the ₱58.25:$1 level this month, before possibly appreciating to ₱57.75 against the United States (US) dollar in three months’ time.
Six months to one year from now, the local currency is seen by ING firming up at the ₱58 level versus the greenback.
The ING report noted that the peso depreciated by 1.2 percent in September, “largely driven by a sell-off in equity markets as the corruption allegations in government projects sparked mass protests.”
“Infrastructure spending concerns and corruption scandals add downside risks to our 2026 GDP [gross domestic product] outlook,” ING said.
ING earlier projected Philippine GDP growth at 5.8 percent next year, lower than the government’s six- to seven-percent target for 2026.
“While we expect the Philippine peso to trade on the weaker side in the medium term, anticipated Fed [US Federal Reserve] easing could provide near-term support for the peso,” it said.
“Additionally, while any reduction in fiscal spending may weigh on GDP growth, it could help narrow the current account deficit, offering further support to the peso,” according to ING.
Last week, ING noted that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) seems largely unfazed by the peso’s recent depreciation pressures, likely because inflation remains contained and the US Fed is expected to cut rates later this year—factors that should help maintain broadly stable interest rate differentials.
As such, ING had revised its previous forecast for another 25-basis-point (bp) interest rate cut by the BSP from the first quarter of 2026 to as early as December this year. The last policy meeting of the BSP’s Monetary Board (MB) for 2025 is scheduled on Dec. 11.
Last Oct. 9, the BSP decided to lower the policy rate by 25 bps to 4.75 percent, partly due to a softening domestic economic growth outlook.
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