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Above normal rainfall likely in next 5 months as La Niña conditions persist, PAGASA warns

Philippines | National

Above normal rainfall likely in next 5 months as La Niña conditions persist, PAGASA warns

By Jel Santos

(MB FILE PHOTO)

(MB FILE PHOTO)

The Philippines may experience above normal rainfall from October 2025 to February 2026 as La Niña-like conditions persist in the tropical Pacific, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned on Friday, Oct. 10.

“With this development, higher chances of above normal rainfall in October 2025 to February 2026 are expected, most especially along the eastern section of the country,” the agency said in a statement.

The state weather bureau explained that the phenomenon stems from “periods of cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that started in August 2025,” which have “continued to persist and further strengthened reaching La Niña conditions threshold of -0.5°C sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in September 2025.”

“La Niña condition exist if a one-month SSTA of -0.5°C or less is observed and an expectation that the 3-month SSTA (Oceanic Niño Index) of -0.5°C or less will be met (i.e., September-October-November, December-January-February),” it added.

Per PAGASA, La Niña conditions will likely continue “at least until the December-January-February 2025–2026 season as suggested by several climate models.”

The agency said the expected increase in rainfall may be due to a higher chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), combined with other rain-bearing weather systems.

“This can be due to increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and combinations of rain-bearing weather systems, which may cause floods, flashfloods and rain-induced landslides in susceptible areas,” it said.

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