Renewable energy (RE) is gaining bigger share of the country’s power generation mix as gas-fired power development continues to slow down, according to a study by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

In a report, Sam Reynolds of the IEEFA explained that gas-to-power plans are falling behind schedule and struggling to compete with coal and RE, largely due to global turbine shortages.

“Although both have set ambitious targets for increasing gas in their electricity mixes, these targets are unlikely to be achieved on schedule or within budget,” he said.

As a result, Reynolds noted that gas-fired power generation has declined since 2015, while renewables are beginning to pick up pace.

Last month, the Department of Energy (DOE) reported that RE accounts for about 32.3 percent of the country’s total energy mix, only slightly below the 35 percent target set for 2030.

“In the Philippines, government plans are more modest for near-term gas-to-power capacity, but investor optimism remains high,” Reynolds explained. He cited the Philippine Energy Plan (PEP), which targets an additional 2.4 gigawatts (GW) of gas capacity by 2028.

However, new liquefied natural gas (LNG) power plants are struggling to secure financing because they face challenges in finding long-term buyers for their electricity, according to IEEFA. Beyond financing, some projects are lagging behind schedule or failing to meet the operational conditions required to start.

“IEEFA believes that proposed greenfield LNG-fired power projects are unlikely to meet these terms, given that most remain in early development stages and are unlikely to have procured gas turbines,” Reynolds said.

As gas projects continue to face hurdles, RE is slowly but surely taking up the space. Reynolds noted that solar and wind projects usually take around one year to complete development, whereas LNG projects take three to four years—and that does not factor in turbine limits, contractual issues, and regulatory delays.

So far, the DOE’s Green Energy Auction Programs (GEA) have awarded around 12 gigawatts (GW) of capacity to various developers.

Recently, GEA-4 auctioned 9,423 megawatts (MW) of capacity for ground-mounted and floating solar, onshore wind, and integrated solar and wind energy storage systems (IRESS). These projects are slated for completion from 2026 to 2029.

The upcoming GEA-5 will auction the country’s first offshore wind (OSW) projects and is expected to begin by the fourth quarter of this year.