The Marcos Jr. administration’s economic team has projected the country’s revenues to equate to 16.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) five years from now, slightly exceeding the record high of 16.7 percent in 2024.

Based on the interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee’s (DBCC) 2025 Midyear Report, published on Sept. 30, total revenues will increase to ₱4.52 trillion this year from ₱4.42 trillion in 2024. They will expand to ₱4.98 trillion in 2026, ₱5.91 trillion in 2027, ₱6.47 trillion in 2029, and ₱7.13 trillion in 2030.

“These initiatives will be supported by the enacted laws and other tax administration reforms focused on digitalization,” the report read.

Meanwhile, revenue effort, or the national government’s revenue-to-GDP ratio, from 2025 to 2029 is seen to be weaker than the 2024 level.

In particular, the ratio is projected to decline to 15.9 percent this year, before rising to 16.2 percent in 2026. It is expected to moderate to 16 percent in 2027, before resuming its upward momentum to 16.3 percent in 2028, and 16.5 percent in 2029.

Estimates show that it will only be in 2030 that another record-high revenue-to-GDP ratio could be posted after last year’s.

Of the projected annual revenues, tax collection would account for around 94.6 percent on average.

Total revenues collected through August this year reached ₱3.09 trillion, 3.3-percent higher than last year’s ₱2.99 trillion. The end-August figure is equivalent to 68.4 percent of the revised full-year target of ₱4.52 trillion.

Tax collections made up the bulk of eight-month government revenues, at ₱2.79 trillion, a nine-percent increase from ₱2.56 trillion a year ago.

Tax revenues are expected to reach ₱4.21 trillion in this year, or 14.9 percent of GDP. They are seen increasing to ₱4.63 trillion (15 percent of GDP) in 2026, ₱5.09 trillion (15.2 percent) in 2027, ₱5.61 trillion (15.5 percent) in 2028, ₱6.2 trillion (15.8 percent) in 2029, and ₱6.85 trillion (16.1 percent) by 2030.

If realized, the annual tax effort would also become the highest since 2000, as it was in 2022 that the tax revenue-to-GDP ratio hit its peak, at 14.6 percent.

Meanwhile, non-tax revenues are projected to average ₱297.9 billion a year from 2025 to 2030, making up about 5.4 percent of total government income.

As of end-August this year, the non-tax haul dropped 31.4 percent to ₱298.3 billion from ₱434.8 billion a year earlier. However, it already stood at 97.3 percent of the revised full-year target of ₱306.5 billion.

“Tax revenue collecting agencies are expected to further enhance efficiency to achieve the anticipated 10.3-percent average annual growth in tax revenues, surpassing the projected 8.3-percent yearly expansion of nominal GDP from 2025 to 2030,” the DBCC said.

It expects the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR), the country’s main tax agency, to rake in ₱5.51 trillion in 2030. Also, collections by the Bureau of Customs (BOC) are seen to hit ₱1.29 trillion five years from now.

From 2025 to 2030, BIR revenues are forecast to grow by 11.6 percent a year on average, while BOC collections are seen rising by about 5.8 percent annually.

Collections from the BIR expanded 11.5 percent to ₱2.14 trillion as of end-August, from ₱1.92 trillion a year ago. Meanwhile, the BOC collected ₱621.4 billion during the same period, 1.1-percent higher than last year’s ₱614.4 billion.

“With the full-year impact of the recently enacted tax reform measures, the BIR and the BOC are expected to record higher growth rates of 11.2 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively, in 2026,” the report added.

To date, the Department of Finance (DOF) has implemented priority tax measures, including the 12-percent value-added tax (VAT) on digital services, the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act, the Capital Market Efficiency Promotion Act (CMEPA), and the new mining fiscal regime.

Meanwhile, the Ease of Paying Taxes Act (EOPT) is designed to modernize tax administration, simplify compliance, and strengthen taxpayer protections.