Hitting a fresh high, the national government (NG) is projected to breach the ₱2-trillion mark in infrastructure spending by 2029, but its share to gross domestic product (GDP) is seen at just 5.2 percent—lower than last year’s 5.8 percent and the planned 5.3 percent for 2025.

According to the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee’s (DBCC) 2025 Midyear Report, published on Sept. 30, infrastructure spending will reach ₱2.03 trillion in 2029 and further increase to ₱2.2 trillion in 2030, both at 5.2 percent of GDP.

Infrastructure spending is expected to hit ₱1.51 trillion this year, ₱1.56 trillion next year (5.1 percent of GDP), ₱1.69 trillion in 2027 (5.1 percent), and ₱1.9 trillion in 2028 (5.2 percent).

In nominal terms, GDP is projected to post a value of ₱28.36 trillion this year, ₱30.85 trillion in 2026, ₱33.46 trillion in 2027, ₱36.3 trillion in 2028, ₱39.25 trillion in 2029, and ₱42.58 trillion in 2030.

To recall, the government had programmed ₱419.9 billion in infrastructure spending for the third quarter of 2025, the largest quarterly disbursement for the year.

The NG’s quarterly fiscal program, approved by the DBCC last June, showed that following ₱317.5 billion in infrastructure spending in the first quarter, higher disbursements of ₱400.5 billion and ₱374.9 billion are targeted for the second and fourth quarters, respectively.

Based on historical DBCC data, the third-quarter infrastructure spending plan is the second-highest quarterly allotment ever, only exceeded by the ₱421.3-billion infrastructure program for the second quarter of 2024.

The DBCC defines the infrastructure program as inclusive of the NG’s infra disbursements, infrastructure components of subsidy and equity to government-owned and/or -controlled corporations (GOCCs), and transfers to local government units (LGUs).

Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC), said infrastructure expenditures equivalent to at least five percent of GDP are “still considered relatively high compared to below two percent of GDP two to three decades ago.”

Ricafort argued that this level “could still be a major driver of government spending, which, in turn, is a major contributor to overall economic growth.”

“Realistically, government spending, especially on infrastructure, could slow down amid anti-corruption measures and greater scrutiny that, in turn, could slow down GDP growth. But this could be offset by realignment of some flood control projects to other departments or to social spending,” he further said.

Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., argued that the ideal approach is ensuring that infrastructure spending materializes and consequently contributes to economic growth. “If the economy benefits, growth materializes.”

Last July, expenditures on infrastructure and other capital outlays dropped by 25.3 percent to ₱93.3 billion from ₱124.9 billion in the same month last year due to slower spending by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), Department of Budget and Management (DBM) data showed.

Infrastructure spending at the start of the second half also declined by 37.3 percent from ₱148.8 billion in June.