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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider The Economy devider Deteriorating investments, US tariffs pose risks to Philippine growth, says Oxford Economics

Deteriorating investments, US tariffs pose risks to Philippine growth, says Oxford Economics

Published Oct 6, 2025 12:00 am  |  Updated Oct 4, 2025 01:30 pm
Despite Philippine growth seen outpacing most of its emerging market (EM) peers, think tank Oxford Economics downgraded its 2026 outlook for the country due to downside risks from United States (US) tariff threats.
“We’ve recently revised down our outlooks for the Philippines and Hungary, where we now see more negative risks to activity,” Oxford Economics EM economist Joshua Fisher said in an Oct. 3 report.
The report showed that the think tank lowered its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines by 0.2 percentage point (ppt) this month, compared to its projection in August.
To recall, Oxford Economics senior economist Callee Davis said last Oct. 2 that the Philippines is expected to achieve 5.7-percent growth next year, which would be among the fastest economic expansion among EMs. The think tank’s forecast is nonetheless below the government’s six- to seven-percent target for 2026.
In Fisher’s report, Oxford Economics cited weakening global growth and a “deteriorating investment outlook” as the key factors behind its tempered expectations for the Philippines.
The think tank also warned that a potential 100-percent US sectoral tariff on semiconductors poses a “significant further downside risk” not only to Philippine exports but also overall economic growth.
“Semiconductors are the Philippines’ top export to the US and are currently exempt from the headline 19-percent tariff,” which was imposed since August, the report noted.
Oxford Economics said earlier that in the Philippines, moderate inflation, accommodative monetary policy, resilient remittances, and large public spending programs would underpin growth.
The think tank also highlighted that the Philippines, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Vietnam—all located in Asia—would be the fastest-growing EMs in 2026.
It expects the country to see declining disposable income yet rising consumption next year.
By 2026, the think tank projected employment, labor supply, and real wages in the country to reflect moderate wage pressures, supported by relatively balanced labor markets.
(Ricardo M. Austria)
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