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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider The Economy devider Brace for ₱1 diesel hike next week, even as gasoline prices drop

Brace for ₱1 diesel hike next week, even as gasoline prices drop

Published Oct 3, 2025 10:12 am  |  Updated Oct 3, 2025 01:08 pm
Motorists may face a seesaw of fuel prices next week, with gasoline expected to roll back further while diesel is projected to increase.
Based on the four-day Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), gasoline prices are expected to decrease by ₱0.5 to ₱0.10 per liter. Meanwhile, diesel is projected to increase by ₱0.80 to ₱1 per liter. Kerosene is also seen to rise by about ₱0.25 per liter.
If realized, this would mark the second consecutive week of price drops for gasoline, but the seventh straight week of price spikes for diesel and kerosene.
According to Rodela Romero, director of the Department of Energy (DOE) Oil Industry Management Bureau (OIMB), a key factor is the United States (US) setting up new sanctions on Iran over the nuclear deal.
Romero stated this is “in support of the UN’s (United Nations) recent decision to reimpose sanctions on Iran for not complying with its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal.”
Iran had agreed to restrict its nuclear program under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, including a limit on uranium production, in exchange for freer trade with other countries. Recent reports, however, claim Iran has not followed the deal, leading to a new round of US sanctions supporting the “snapback” UN Security Council penalties. Since Iran is a large oil producer, this sanction may affect trading and supply in the global oil market.
Meanwhile, oil-producing nations are set to raise their crude production levels, which Jetti Petroleum explained could result in a sharp drop in prices.
Jetti President Leo Bellas noted the conflicting factors. “Despite the bearish sentiment, Asian diesel market fundamentals remain supported due to regional flows shifting to the West to meet demands from the US and Europe,” Bellas said. He added that the ongoing autumn refinery maintenance, peak harvest season demand, and Russia’s partial diesel export ban have raised the risk of supply shortfalls.
Conversely, Bellas noted that Asian gasoline prices have slightly decreased because of rising stockpiles and slowing demand. However, refinery shutdowns, stronger demand from Indonesia, and the recent Russian gasoline export ban may limit any significant rollbacks.
“Further pushing the potential movement of domestic pump prices next week to the upside is the weaker Philippine Peso against the US dollar,” he added.

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