The Department of Agriculture (DA) expressed optimism that consumers would see lower food prices in the coming months, following the anticipated return of food production and supply to normal levels.

During a news forum on Saturday, Jan. 18, DA Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa said the agency is forecasting a drop in prices of pork, fish, vegetables, and rice.

For pork, De Mesa said the recent surge in prices is a “continuing effect” of the African Swine Fever (ASF) and the huge demand for the commodity in the last quarter of 2024.

Lower prices, however, are expected by February as hog raisers recover their livestock numbers.

De Mesa said the reopening of the country’s fishing season would likewise lead to a drop in the prices of fishery goods.

“Inaasahan natin itong huling bahagi ng January, February magbubukas na uli iyong ilang areas na nagkaroon ng closed fishing season,” he stated. (We expect that by the latter part of January or February, some areas that had a closed fishing season will reopen.)

Meanwhile, retail prices of vegetables will likely dip as well in the coming months as agricultural fields recover.

Last year, the agriculture sector was heavily devastated by the effects of the El Niño phenomenon during the early part of 2024, followed by successive typhoons that ravaged the country as the year ended.

Based on reports, the El Niño caused P15 billion in losses to the agriculture sector, while the recent string of storms resulted in damages exceeding P10 billion.

De Mesa pointed out that the downpour in the Bicol region, Calabarzon, Cagayan Valley, and Central Luzon affected vegetable production, leading to a reduced supply and higher prices.

“So, ngayon naman na tag-init na, ito na iyong panahon na ini-expect natin na sobrang dadami naman uli iyong ating produksiyon,” he added. (So, now that it's dry season, this is the time we expect our production to significantly increase again.)

Lastly, for rice, the decline in prices in the world market and the imminent declaration of a “food security emergency” are projected to yield lower prices.

“In fact, nitong December ay na-inflation report ng PSA (Philippine Statistics Authority) hindi na masyadong malaki iyong cost sa food inflation, in particular iyong bigas kumpara noong previous month,” noted De Mesa. (In fact, in the December inflation report of the PSA, the cost of food inflation, particularly rice, was not as high compared to the previous month.)

The DA is set to declare a “food security emergency” to help stabilize rice prices in the country by allowing the National Food Authority (NFA) to release buffer stock.

Potential price reductions, as forecasted, are within the P3 to P5 range.

Harnessing Kadiwa

In a bid to lower rice prices even further for consumers, the DA is pushing for the establishment of Kadiwa centers in public and private markets across Metro Manila.

According to De Mesa, the agency recently urged the Metro Manila Council to authorize the development of new Kadiwa stores.

“There are about 150 public and private markets within Metro Manila. So, gusto ni secretary, sa lahat ng 150 na pamilihan, i-allow ang Kadiwa doon (So, the secretary wants Kadiwa to be allowed in all 150 markets),” he said.

“Hinihikayat namin ang mga mayors na payagan na magbenta sa Kadiwa (We are encouraging the mayors to allow selling through Kadiwa),” added De Mesa, noting that Kadiwa stores are only present in 20 markets in Metro Manila.

The Kadiwa program, implemented by the DA, provides the public with affordable goods through farmers’ direct selling of goods to consumers.

Last year, the agency introduced a program offering rice at only P29 per kilo in Kadiwa centers, exclusively sold to the country’s vulnerable sectors.

President Marcos has since ordered the establishment of Kadiwa centers in 300 markets nationwide by the second quarter of 2025.

Address profiteering, not ‘manipulate’ rice law

The government should crack down on profiteering in the rice supply chain rather than “manipulate” laws to justify releasing National Food Authority (NFA) stocks, farmers’ groups said on Saturday, Jan. 18.

Raul Montemayor, the national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers (FFF), said there is no national food security emergency for rice, noting that there is no supply shortage or calamity, harvests will resume in March, and prices, though still high, are gradually decreasing.

“What we have is a failure of the government agencies to run after and discipline profiteering importers, wholesalers, and retailers,” Montemayor said.

The National Price Coordinating Council (NPCC), he said, has yet to establish the formula mandated under Republic Act No. 12708, the Revised Agricultural Tariffication Act, to determine whether a rice shortage or extraordinary price increase exists. 

“Has such a formula been devised? If so, why only now when the price spike started way earlier in the latter part of 2023 and peaked in early 2024?” he asked.

The NFA is reportedly considering releasing 500,000 bags of rice, equivalent to about 25,000 metric tons or two-thirds of the country’s daily rice consumption. However, Montemayor said the move would have minimal impact on market prices, even if concentrated in Metro Manila and its nearby areas.

Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas (KMP) Chairperson Danilo Ramos echoed this concern, urging the government to focus on long-term solutions rather than short-term fixes.

“With or without any declaration of a national food security emergency, the government and the DA further cement the Philippines’ dependence on foreign rice instead of bolstering local rice production and granting immediate relief for consumers,” Ramos said.

The KMP proposed increasing farmgate prices for locally produced palay (unmilled rice), strengthening post-harvest facilities, and exacting punitive measures against unscrupulous rice traders, importers, and hoarders.

“To the DA and Malacañang, enough with the band-aid solutions. The government must overhaul its failed agricultural policies and put Filipino farmers, consumers, and productive sectors at the center of its economic agenda,” Ramos added.

Montemayor also warned of potential losses and unintended consequences if the NFA sells rice to local government units (LGUs) at lower prices. Selling rice at ₱36 per kilo, he explained, would result in a ₱150-million loss for the agency, while selling at ₱32 per kilo would incur a ₱250-million loss.

The FFF and KMP underscored the need to repeal the Rice Liberalization Law, which they said has exacerbated the struggles of Filipino farmers and consumers. Ramos said the law has worsened the country’s dependence on rice imports and displaced local farmers, leaving them unable to compete. (With a report from Jel Santos)