Philippine merchandise exports grew at their slowest pace so far this year in August, as United States (US) tariffs took effect and exporters’ front-loading of outbound shipments ended.

The latest preliminary Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data on Tuesday, Sept. 30, showed that the 4.6-percent year-on-year goods exports growth in August was the weakest expansion since the 1.9-percent decline recorded in December 2024.

Shipments of Philippine-made products abroad increased by 9.6 percent year-on-year in January, 12.8 percent in February, 8.7 percent in March, 7.6 percent in April, 15.5 percent in May, 26.9 percent in June, and 17.6 percent in July—the seven months leading to the 19-percent tariff slapped by the US on imports from the Philippines starting Aug. 7.

US President Donald Trump, since winning the presidential election in November 2024, had threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs and formalized them through his so-called “Liberation Day” last April, even as actual implementation was pushed back several times.

“The slowdown to 4.6-percent [exports] growth in August likely reflects two things: the bite of new US tariffs starting to kick in, and the tapering off of exporters’ front-loading ahead of those tariffs. It’s a classic case of demand pulled forward, now easing,” said Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co.

Robert Dan Roces, group economist at SM Investments Corp. (SMIC), said the August goods exports growth rate “reflects both timing effects: earlier front-loading by exporters ahead of US tariffs created an artificial bump in previous months, and when those shipments normalized, growth softened.”

“The actual tariff hit also began to show through in August, particularly for electronics and other tariff-sensitive goods, reinforcing the weak print,” Roces added.

For Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) lead economist Emilio Neri Jr., the August slowdown “may also just be a soft patch.”

“It’s really difficult to tell if this is a slowing trend that won’t reverse anytime soon as supply chains continue to realign. So far, both Indonesia and Vietnam continue to show strong export expansion both with China and the US,” Neri explained.

PSA data showed that merchandise exports in August, valued at $7.06 billion, were the lowest in four months, even as they kept export revenues above the $7-billion level, which was first recorded in May. Goods exports registered shipments below $7 billion from January to April this year.

“One positive is that the pullback was partly mechanical: the earlier front-loading inflated prior months, so the August dip looks sharper than the underlying trend,” Roces noted.

National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa told Manila Bulletin that end-August merchandise exports, amounting to $55.7 billion, were the highest recorded for the eight-month period since 1991.

End-August goods exports grew 12.6 percent year-on-year, even as the government expects a two-percent contraction by year-end.

Electronic products remained the Philippines’ top export commodity from January to August, with overseas sales growing by 7.4 percent year-on-year to $29.5 billion.

“Electronics, which still make up more than half of exports, managed to stay positive, and non-traditional markets in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the European Union (EU) are showing firmer demand. That suggests some resilience and diversification even as the US tariff drag bites,” Roces said.

While Hong Kong edged out the US as the No. 1 destination of Philippine exports in August, America remained the top export market for the first eight months of the year.

Due to higher tariffs, goods exports to the US declined by 11.2 percent year-on-year to $1.09 billion in August alone, lower than the $1.19 billion worth shipped to Hong Kong.

But from January to August, shipments to the US rose 9.1 percent year-on-year to $8.85 billion, with the biggest share to total at 15.9 percent. Hong Kong, Japan, China, and the Netherlands rounded out the top five export markets during the first eight months.

As for imports, Mapa said the end-August figure of $88.1 billion, up 5.1 percent year-on-year, was the second highest on record, just behind the $93 billion posted in 2022, when the domestic economy widely reopened from Covid-19 pandemic restrictions.

However, in August alone, imports shrank 4.9 percent year-on-year to $10.6 billion.

The Philippines, a net importer of the products it uses, sourced the bulk of these goods from China, where $25.2 billion worth of products were bought from January to August.

End-August imports from China jumped 17.5 percent year-on-year, as goods brought to the Philippines in August alone climbed 14.1 percent year-on-year to $3.19 billion.

China held a 30.1-percent share of Philippine imports in August, and 28.6 percent for the first eight months.

In comparison, South Korea, the second-biggest source of imports in the month of August, sold only $848.9 million worth of goods to the Philippines, or about a fourth of the value imported from China that month.

For the first eight months, Japan was the second-largest import source, with $6.99 billion worth, or just over a fourth of end-August imports from China.

The government projected 3.5-percent growth in goods imports for 2025.