Bargain hunting expected in local stocks despite persistent bearish mood
Following a week-long decline, the local stock market may experience some bargain-hunting despite prevailing bearish sentiment, with investors likely to interpret the S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing PMI and US jobs and PCE inflation data for cues.
“The local market is still moving with a bearish bias, forming a new lower low and even visiting the below 6,000 territory last week. Corruption issues over the Philippines’ flood control projects and the Peso’s weakening position against the US Dollar continue to weigh on the bourse,” said Philstocks Financial Research Manager Japhet Tantiangco.
While seeing some bargain hunting is expected, he said a strong rally is not yet likely until the market finds a strong positive catalyst.
Aside from dealing with corruption issues, he said investors may also take cues from the movement of other relevant markets next week.
“The Peso’s direction may still play a significant role in the market’s movement, with a further depreciation causing a market decline and an appreciation causing a market rebound.
“Long-term treasury yields may also affect the market’s movement next week. A further rise in yields is expected to weigh on the bourse while a drop may help fuel a market climb,” said Tantiangco.
For its part, online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said the Fed navigates a delicate balance between persistent inflation risks and softening labor signals.
It noted that the September 25bps cut marks a pivot, “but FOMC dots signal only one more quarter-point reduction by year-end, with seven members favoring no further action or hikes amid positive GDP and labor reports.”
Into early 2026, consensus is pricing in 50bps total cuts if unemployment edges above 4.3 percent, but aggressive easing risks reversing course if tariff passthrough accelerates.
“Locally, the BSP continues to advocate for the doves, with officials recently telegraphing a 25bps cut at the next policy meeting (Oct. 9).
“Following August's trim and with September inflation data due soon, some policy rate momentum may be expected in time for a resurgence in household spending and capex frontloading in the fourth quarter,” 2TradeAsia.com said.
The brokerage said that, “Ultimately, while volatility may persist in the short run, current market pessimism presents a compelling accumulation opportunity for patient capital.”
For stock picks, Abacus Securities Corporation favors Megawide Construction Corporation as it sees more upside despite the recent rally in its share price.
The brokerage said the firm will benefit from the cash and stock payments of its parent company, Citicore, as it uses the funds to pare down debt, and interest payments are expected to drop 20 percent next year.
Megawide is also expected to grow earnings from its housing subsidiary, while its order book is expected to get a boost from new contracts that may be bagged later this year.
Meanwhile, Unicapital Securities Research Analyst Peter Louise D. Garnace has a BUY rating for Meralco after slightly raising the target price by two percent after increasing the earnings contribution assumption from its LNG investment.