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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider The Economy devider Flood control scandal fuels protests, raises political risk in Philippines—EIU

Flood control scandal fuels protests, raises political risk in Philippines—EIU

Published Sep 25, 2025 03:35 pm  |  Updated Sep 25, 2025 02:24 pm
Thousands of protesters march towards the EDSA People Power Monument in Quezon City on Sunday, September 21, 2025 to call on the government to prosecute corrupt government officials and contractors involved in anomalous and ghost flood control projects in the country. The mobilization follows with the earlier program “Baha sa Luneta” held in Manila City that also gathered thousands of crowd protesting against corruption. (Santi San Juan)
Thousands of protesters march towards the EDSA People Power Monument in Quezon City on Sunday, September 21, 2025 to call on the government to prosecute corrupt government officials and contractors involved in anomalous and ghost flood control projects in the country. The mobilization follows with the earlier program “Baha sa Luneta” held in Manila City that also gathered thousands of crowd protesting against corruption. (Santi San Juan)
Protests against massive corruption in the rollout of billions of pesos in “ghost” or substandard flood control projects in recent years are expected to snowball and heighten political risks in the Philippines, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
“The Marcos Jr. administration is likely to announce a relief package as a result of flooding due to Super Typhoon ‘Ragasa.’ However, this will not quell social unrest, and we expect the protests to continue in the near term,” said EIU Asia analyst Kalyani Honrao in a Sept. 24 report titled “Anti-corruption protests raise risks to political stability,” a copy of which was obtained by Manila Bulletin.
“Ragasa,” known locally as “Nando,” intensified into a super typhoon on Sept. 21, the same day thousands of Filipinos protested against the misuse of public funds following the flood control scandal involving public works officials and legislators who hold the power of the purse.
No less than President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. ordered a probe, forming the fact-finding Independent Commission for Infrastructure (ICI) to investigate about ₱545 billion in flood control projects rolled out during the current administration.
However, “substantial reforms to address corruption are unlikely in the near term, as Marcos will prioritize maintaining political support,” EIU said. “Despite ongoing investigations, Marcos is unlikely to take resolute action such as elevating the issue to a signature policy status.”
“If Marcos were to take hardline action to eliminate corruption in the flood control construction projects, he risks alienating important supporters to the favor of the Dutertes instead,” it added.
This would likely benefit Marcos’ former running mate turned political rival, Vice President Sara Duterte, according to EIU.
“The prospects of the vice president... have risen for the presidential election in May 2028,” EIU said. It cited that a Supreme Court (SC) ruling voided an impeachment complaint against Duterte on due process grounds, which, coupled with majority Senate support and her allies’ midterm election wins last May, spares the vice president from further proceedings until February next year.
For EIU, “several factors will weigh on political stability.”
“Allies of the Duterte family could leverage anti-government sentiment, resulting in large-scale protests. The opposition could also block passage of legislation introduced by the Marcos Jr. administration aimed at consolidating power, given their improved position in the Senate, which will hamper policymaking,” it said.
EIU lamented that this scandal erupted while the Philippines faces economic fallout from natural disasters.
The country’s rail network and natural disaster economic risk received the highest possible score of four in EIU’s infrastructure risk assessment. Risks to port facilities, power network, as well as road network were rated at three.
“The Philippines is highly vulnerable to typhoons and floods, highlighting the importance of climate-resilient infrastructure. Floods lead to prolonged road closures, halting economic activity and resulting in dirty water affecting public health,” EIU noted.
“Reforms to end corruption remain the main demand of protesters. A lack of action and fair investigation by the [ICI] raises the risk of further social instability,” EIU said.
“Marcos’ appeal to ensure accountability and support for the anti-corruption protests will help him to retain public support and deter further unrest. His grip on the state apparatus, coupled with his dominant position in the House of Representatives, will mitigate risks to political stability,” EIU added.
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