The Bureau of the Treasury expects that the Philippines’ potential inclusion in JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s emerging market government bond index will attract billions in new foreign investment, further integrating the country into global financial markets.

National Treasurer Sharon P. Almanza told Manila Bulletin on Tuesday, Sept. 16 that the Philippines could attract more than $2 billion, or approximately ₱114 billion, in additional foreign investments with the expected one percent weighting in J.P. Morgan’s influential index.

Almanza stated that, in addition to current inflows from foreign investors, the estimated additional value is “more than $2 billion.”

“We’re already on index watch-positive status for inclusion in the JPM GB EM Index,” she said. The index is the industry standard for tracking local-currency EM debt and is followed by global fund managers.

“We’re hopeful that we will be included soon after the six- to nine-month assessment of the JPM index team as we continue to improve secondary market liquidity and the tax treaty implementation,” Almanza added.

“Our data shows that foreign participation has increased year-to-date already,” she noted, backing the expected inflows figure.

According to the Treasury, foreign ownership of peso-denominated government bonds has more than tripled, rising from 1.8 percent in 2021 to six percent as of August. This increase is equivalent to $12.8 billion.

Almanza earlier said foreign participation in government bond sales could grow to double digits. However, the government “does not have a specific target” for the share of foreign sources in the borrowing portfolio.

For 2026, the government is targeting ₱627.1 billion from foreign sources, while the larger share of ₱2.05 trillion will be sourced from domestic creditors.

The government’s programmed borrowing mix stands at 80 percent domestic—through treasury bills and bonds—and 20 percent external. This strategy leverages domestic banks and creditors, who are flush with cash, while reducing exposure to foreign exchange (forex) risks and volatility.

Higher than Almanza’s figure, analysts believe the looming inclusion of peso bonds in the index could attract an estimated $10 billion to $12 billion in fresh investments. Besides lowering the government’s borrowing costs, it could also free up resources for public spending.

If the Philippines is included, a one-percent index weight means investors who track or benchmark their funds to the JPMorgan Chase index would allocate around one percent of their portfolio to peso bonds.

The country’s debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio climbed to a 20-year high of 63.1 percent—further away from the Marcos Jr. administration’s target—as the national government’s outstanding debt continued to hit record highs in the second quarter of 2025.

The national government’s debt level is also projected to exceed ₱19 trillion by the end of 2026, nearly 10 percent higher than the projected end-2025 level of ₱17.36 trillion.