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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider PAGASA warns La Niña may hit by October, floods and landslides expected

PAGASA warns La Niña may hit by October, floods and landslides expected

Published Sep 15, 2025 07:26 pm
(MB FILE PHOTO)
(MB FILE PHOTO)
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Monday, Sept 15, warned that La Niña could form as early as October, bringing heavier rains, more storms, and heightened risk of floods and landslides in vulnerable areas.
“Most climate models combined with expert judgements suggest 70% chance of La Niña forming in October-December (OND) 2025 season and is likely to persist until December 2025 – February 2026 (DJF 2025-26) season,” PAGASA said in an advisory.
With the development, the bureau has raised its ENSO Alert and Warning System to La Niña Alert. The ENSO Alert is PAGASA’s warning system that signals the likelihood of El Niño or La Niña developing and their possible impacts on the country’s weather.
“Historically, La Niña is characterized by an above-average number of tropical cyclone occurrences towards the end of the year; while recent forecast shows higher chances of above-normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the country,” PAGASA said.
These rains may be triggered by “monsoons, severe thunderstorms, low pressure areas (LPAs), easterlies, shearlines and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), that can trigger adverse impacts, including floods and landslides in vulnerable areas,” the state weather bureau added.
PAGASA explained that a La Niña Alert is raised when there is at least a 70 percent chance of the weather phenomenon developing within two months.
The agency urged the public and government agencies to stay on guard.
“DOST-PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the possibility of La Niña, and its effect on the local climate. All concerned agencies and the public are encouraged to continue monitoring and take precautionary measures against their potential impacts,” it said.
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