There are two storms brewing and threatening the conduct of the first parliament elections for the Bangsamoro region in Mindanao on Oct. 13, and a conflict monitoring and peace advocacy group is urging the national government to strictly implement the gun ban, including cancellation of all exemptions to carry firearms, as one of the effective counter-measures.

In a statement, the Climate Conflict Action said the split within the factions of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) is widening and this is could spell out trouble in the remaining days leading to the Oct. 13 elections in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region In Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).

“This division risks spilling over into armed conflict as political rivalries intensify ahead of the October parliamentary elections,” the CCA said.

The second threat, according to the CCA, is the quiet but steady resurgence of violent extremism, with new recruitment among the youth in Lanao del Sur and Lanao del Norte, and the reemergence of extremist cells in Basilan.

If left unchecked, the recruitment would spoil all the efforts to bring peace and development in Mindanao.

“These are not isolated incidents. Taken together, they are warning signs of a region on the brink of renewed instability,” the CCA said.

“We cannot turn a blind eye. The stakes in Mindanao are no less urgent. If left unchecked, these tensions could spiral into violence, trigger mass displacement, and undo years of investment in peace,” it added.

In issuing the warning, the CCA presented pieces of evidence of the threat of violence in reemerging extremism in Mindanao.

Among them are allegedly the growing demand for illicit firearms and ammunition which suggests preparations for armed confrontation; reports of extremist recruitment inside schools, madrasahs, and local networks targeting vulnerable youth in Munai, Tangkal, and Salvador in Lanao del Norte, as well as Lumbayanague and Marantao in Lanao del Sur; and the recent attacks on law enforcement by an alleged extremist group in the island province of Basilan.

The group also warned of the heightened tensions in ancestral domain areas of Non-Moro Indigenous Peoples (NMIPs), where MILF forces remain present, increasing the risk of clashes and displacement.

Aside from strictly enforcing the gun ban with no exemption, the CCA urged the national government to ensure that all weapons before, during, and after election day should solely be held by law enforcement officers.

The group also appealed to the national government to prevent conflict prevention mechanisms such as CCCH (Coordinating Committee on the Cessation of Hostilities) and AHJAG (Ad Hoc Joint Action Group) from intervening in cases of gun ban violations.

The group also recommended the close monitoring of conflict flashpoints and signs of polarization to prevent escalation; supporting and collaborating with independent monitoring bodies and set up trusted hotlines so that citizens have reliable channels to report incidents and receive timely responses; establishing sanctuaries for personalities who are at high-risk of assassinations; and, preparing robust humanitarian response systems to address displacement—ensuring food, water, health services, emergency shelters, and continuity of education for affected children.

“The Bangsamoro’s fragile transition cannot withstand neglect. The quiet buildup of arms, extremist networks, and unresolved grievances in Mindanao threatens to ignite a far greater crisis. The nation must pay attention and act before it is too late,” the CCA said.

“There is a positive move to demand greater transparency and accountability for public officials, exposed by recent controversies on flood control. While this is a welcome development, we must prevent the weaponization of good governance processes and measures themselves from becoming targeted attacks that serve political agenda rather than the greater good,” it added.