Amid prospects for United States (US) and domestic rate cuts, stock market investors will be watching for key data this week, including US August inflation figures and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) foreign direct investment numbers.

According to online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com, a recent endorsement from a US Federal Reserve (Fed) governor for a September rate cut suggests a shift toward easing. The policy rate could potentially drop from 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent to a more neutral three percent as labor data softens.

The brokerage also noted that global inflation is forecast to moderate to around 4.2 percent to 4.5 percent in 2025. However, it cautioned that tariff risks and persistent price pressures in some economies could temper this decline. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing talks between Russia, Ukraine, the US, and the EU, remain a wildcard, putting pressure on supply chains and emerging market currencies.

This global trend of easing coincides with a similar shift in the Philippines. Although the full impact may be delayed due to transmission lags, this easing could position Philippine assets for stronger inflows and accelerate growth into 2026.

While the country’s inflation remains below the BSP’s two percent to four percent target, 2TradeAsia highlighted that the “stickiness” of core inflation could prevent any aggressive, surprise rate cuts. Still, the brokerage believes the path for another BSP cut by year-end is firm, supported by resilient GDP growth and rebounding imports.

Despite a positive macroeconomic backdrop, 2TradeAsia pointed out that the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) continues to trade significantly below its historical averages and regional peers.

The firm believes this presents genuine bargains, which are made even more inviting by seasonal consumer spending, falling global capital costs, and the government's ongoing infrastructure push.

The close of the third quarter will depend on upcoming data releases. US August inflation data on September 11 is likely to pave the way for a Fed rate cut on Sept. 17. This would be followed by the BSP’s “promised” rate cut on Oct. 9. The BSP is also scheduled to release foreign direct investment numbers on September 10 and balance of payments and external debt data on Sept. 12.

For stock picks, Unicapital Securities Head of Research Wendy B. Estacio-Cruz recommends a BUY rating for Security Bank Corp. She cited the bank’s undemanding valuation and believes that concerns over asset quality have already been priced into the stock.

“At the current price, the stock is trading at a significant discount to its historical averages,” Estacio-Cruz said. She added that the stock's year-to-date share price is down 15%, underperforming the financials index return of 10 percent and the PSEi’s decline of six percent.