The country’s umbrella group of exporters has retained its forecast that the export of goods and services will fall short of the government’s target this year, as uncertainties about the reliability of the United States (US) market continue to grow.

Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. (Philexport) president Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr. said the industry group is targeting to reach $110 billion for the country’s exports.

This projection falls below the government’s target of $113.42 billion under the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) and $163.6 billion under the Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP), which were both launched in 2023.

Ortiz-Luis said the export sector initially set its sights on reaching the PEDP target this year, but has since shifted to the more attainable PDP target.

“Officially, we have not changed the target. Pero ‘yung medyo reasonable, ‘yun na ang tinitignan namin (But we are now considering what is more reasonable),” he told reporters last week.

Despite the lower $110-billion projection, Ortiz-Luis admitted that this target could still be difficult to achieve given uncertainties with the US, the country’s top export market, and the broader impact of its policies on other countries.

From January to June, the country’s merchandise exports expanded 13 percent to $41.24 billion from $36.44 billion in the same period last year, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.

This year’s stronger export performance has been attributed to frontloading, which the World Trade Organization (WTO) said helped reverse earlier projections of weak trade growth, as US importers accelerated purchases of foreign goods ahead of Trump’s tariffs earlier this month.

To recall, Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs took effect on Aug. 7, slapping Philippine goods entering America with a 19-percent tariff rate.

Ortiz-Luis said the first-half export performance was driven by markets outside the US and not necessarily frontloading, as he noted that some exporters to the US are not receiving any orders.

Based on PSA data, the US had the highest export value for the country with $1.21 billion or 17 percent of the total exports in June.

If exporters were to expand their markets to cushion the impact of the tariffs, Ortiz-Luis said the next bet would be Greater China—which includes China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan—and Japan.

Even so, he noted that expanding to these economies is easier said than done, given current geopolitical tensions, particularly the Philippines’ ongoing dispute with China in the West Philippine Sea.

He also noted that the export industry, in general, receives limited government support compared to the export-focused policies of neighboring Southeast Asian countries.

“Unless the government seriously say, we will support export and really put money into it, not lip service, I don't see any change,” said Ortiz-Luis.

The Philexport official said the government’s commitment to exports could be reflected in next year’s budget for the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), which he said is among the lowest among government agencies.

Under the proposed National Expenditure Program (NEP), which outlines the government’s annual budget, the DTI has been allocated a budget of ₱9.9 billion, 15 percent higher than the current budget of ₱8.60 billion.

The agency’s Exports and Investments Development Program will receive ₱962 million next year, compared to this year’s ₱853.7 million.

Under the NEP, the DTI’s budget is aimed at supporting efforts to “strengthen Philippine exports, attract investments, promote skills upgrading, and advance green businesses.”