Asian exports, including those from the Philippines, are seen remaining resilient in the second half of the year, contrary to earlier expectations that regional shipments would slump once front-loading ahead of United States (US) tariffs wane, according to the think tank Capital Economics.

“Export growth in Asia picked up over the first six months of 2025 with shipments up by around 7.5 percent in US dollar terms compared to a year earlier... Many have pinned strong export growth in the region on efforts to front-run US tariffs, which has fed concerns that shipments could now be on the brink of a sharp fall,” Capital Economics deputy chief emerging markets economist Jason Tuvey noted in an Aug. 19 report.

But Tuvey said that other forces are at work. “Tariff front-running isn’t the only possible explanation for why exports have been doing so well... One is that US demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-linked electronics has been strong.”

“Another factor driving rapid growth in exports to the US from parts of the region is that there is some re-ordering of supply chains taking place. This has been to the benefit of Southeast Asia and India and to the detriment of China,” he added.

Tuvey cited that China’s shrinking share of US imports over the past year has been matched by an increase in imports from the rest of Asia.

“Rerouting of exports from China to the US via third countries may explain some of this. But this probably only explains a small part of the shift in trade flows,” he said.

For Tuvey, the combination of overlapping exports and unused capacity meant that many Asian economies are set to benefit from US demand moving away from China due to tariffs.

“The upshot to all of this is we don’t agree with the hypothesis that Asia’s exports to the US will fall sharply as tariff front-running ends,” Tuvey said.

While Asian export growth is expected to slow over the rest of 2025 and into 2026 to 2027 as the effects of strong first-half demand fade, Tuvey said that this is “unlikely to turn into a major drag on GDP [gross domestic product] growth” for most Asian countries.

Philippine goods exports climbed 13.2 percent year-on-year to a record $41.24 billion in the first six months of 2025 after June shipments surged 26.1 percent year-on-year to $7.02 billion.

From January to June, the US remained as the Philippines’ No. 1 merchandise export destination, with a cumulative $6.6 billion, up 13.2 percent year-on-year.

In June alone, goods exports to the US soared 35.2 percent year-on-year to $1.21 billion.

The US is the destination of about 16-17 percent of total merchandise exports.

A hastily made visit to Washington by President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. last month to negotiate the 20-percent tariffs earlier threatened by US President Donald J. Trump slightly brought down the rate slapped on Philippine exports to America to 19 percent.

During his “Liberation Day” announcement back in April, Trump wanted to impose a reciprocal tariff of 17 percent on the Philippines, lower than what was agreed upon with Marcos.

The first-half merchandise export performance came despite the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordinating Committee’s (DBCC) pessimistic expectations back in June, projecting goods exports to decline by two percent in 2025 “largely due to slower global demand and heightened trade policy uncertainties.”

Prior to the global trade tensions started by Trump when he returned to the US presidency for a second term, the government had forecast six-percent merchandise exports growth for this year.