As the national government’s (NG) outstanding debt continued to breach records in the second quarter of 2025, the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio climbed to a 20-year high of 63.1 percent—further away from the Marcos administration’s target.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s chief economic manager, told Manila Bulletin that the share of public debt to economic output is expected to ease by year-end, although historical Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) data showed that his projected end-2025 ratio would be the highest in 20 years, if achieved.

The latest data from the BTr on Thursday, Aug. 7, showed that the quarter ending June’s debt-to-GDP ratio increased further from 62 percent at the end of the first quarter, and 60.7 percent at the end of 2024.

In an Aug. 7 text message, Recto told Manila Bulletin: “We expect debt-to-GDP to be 61 percent by the end of the year. That’s our program.”

At 61 percent, it would be the highest since end-2005’s 65.7 percent.

Referring to President Marcos, Recto added that, “PBBM inherited a debt-to-GDP of roughly 62 percent in 2022.”

A check with historical BTr data showed that the NG debt-to-GDP ratio fell to its lowest level, at 39.6 percent, during the Duterte administration in 2019—before the Covid-19 pandemic struck.

Amid massive borrowings to fight the health and socioeconomic crises wrought by Covid-19, the public debt ratio jumped to 54.6 percent at end-2020; 60.4 percent at end-2021, and 60.9 percent at end-2022.

At end-2023, the ratio stood at 60.1 percent, before inching up to 60.7 percent by end-2024.

At the end of the first half of 2025, the domestic debt pile was equivalent to 43.6 percent of GDP, up from 42.3 percent a quarter ago.

Meanwhile, external debts had an end-June 2025 ratio of 19.4 percent, down from the previous quarter’s 19.7 percent.

The Marcos administration has claimed to have been working to prudently manage the country’s debt, which Recto had said ballooned by ₱6.84 trillion under the previous administration, leaving a total of ₱12.79 trillion.

The country’s outstanding debt reached a new record high of ₱17.27 trillion as of the end of June. This represented a 2.1-percent or ₱350-billion increase from the previous month.

The Department of Finance (DOF) noted last June that the current government has been managing the swollen debt stock. A week ago, the DOF also said the administration had brought down the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60.7 percent last year through prudent debt management.

Relative to its Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) counterparts, the Philippines’ debt is “positioned comfortably within the median range,” the DOF had noted.

With the economy growing faster than its debt obligations, the government remains on track to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to within 60 percent by 2028, the DOF had said.

Gross borrowings stood at ₱1.59 trillion as of the end of June, slightly higher than the ₱1.57 trillion from the same period last year.

These borrowings already accounted for 62.5 percent of the government’s total planned borrowings of ₱2.55 trillion for the year.

Recto had assured that this is not an early sign of exceeding the full-year borrowing target.

The Finance chief had said that the Philippines remains on track with its borrowing and fiscal deficit targets.

For her part, National Treasurer Sharon Almanza had said that, “we are on track with our borrowing program for the year. It was slightly higher because we raised most of our commercial issuance in the first quarter.”