Dovish signals, US tariff uncertainty drive down government borrowing costs
By Derco Rosal
At A Glance
- The Marcos administration continued to exceed its planned borrowing on Monday as strong investor demand drove another oversubscription in six-month debt sales, with borrowing costs falling for the fourth straight week on global uncertainties over US trade policy ahead of Friday's tariff pause expiry.
Global trade jitters and the impending expiry of US tariff pauses failed to deter investors, as the Marcos administration’s debt sales saw robust demand, allowing the Bureau of the Treasury to raise ₱28.4 billion and continue its four-week trend of lower borrowing costs.
During the sale of three-month, six-month, and one-year debt securities, the treasury raised ₱28.4 billion from domestic creditors through the sale of short-term debt on Monday, July 28, surpassing its target for the fourth consecutive week since July 7.
Its ₱25-billion program received a total of ₱103.5 billion in bids, more than four times the amount offered. This week’s demand was higher than last week’s ₱92.2 billion in bids for similar offerings.
The Treasury fully awarded its ₱7-billion offer for 91-day treasury bills (T-bills). Total tenders reached ₱37.7 billion. The average rate was 5.388 percent, 3.4-basis points (bps) lower than the previous week’s 5.422 percent.
For 182-day debt securities, the BTr awarded ₱11.9 billion to domestic creditors, exceeding the ₱8.5-billion offered amount. Bids reached ₱36.7 billion, fetching an average rate of 5.543 percent, 2.3 bps lower than last week’s 5.566 percent.
Lastly, the BTr borrowed the planned ₱9.5 billion through 364-day IOUs. Demand reached ₱29 billion. Like the shorter bills, the average rate inched down slightly to 5.627 percent from 5.631 percent in the previous auction.
Prior to Monday’s auction, PHP Bloomberg Valuation (PHP BVAL) Reference Rates showed that the 91-, 182-, and 364-day T-bills were quoted at 5.410 percent, 5.582 percent, and 5.680 percent, respectively.
Rates for the six-month and one-year securities were higher than the previous week’s benchmark rates, but the three-month debt paper was lower. Rates across the board were higher than the key borrowing cost of 5.25 percent.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist said that the continued decline of interest rates in four consecutive weeks is driven by dovish signals from Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto by year-end, coupled with uncertainties over United States (US) tariffs ahead of the trade deals deadline on Friday.
Earlier this month, Recto said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) could proceed with delivering two quarter-point cuts in the key interest rate by year-end even if the United States (US) Federal Reserve decides to pause its easing cycle.
Meanwhile, global uncertainty over potential new US tariffs ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline is weighing on sentiment, Ricafort further said, noting that these risks could dampen global growth.