Halfway through fiscal year (FY) 2025, the government’s revenue performance is showing mixed results, as the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) is seen to meet its target while the Bureau of Customs (BOC) is projected to fall short—a familiar scene from history.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto disclosed to reporters last week that the BIR had collected a total of ₱200.5 billion in June. This was 16.2-percent higher than the ₱172.5 billion collected in the same month last year.

Recto attributed this double-digit growth to the usual drivers in the expansion of tax revenues, including corporate income tax (CIT), excise tax on tobacco products, personal income tax (PIT), taxes on government securities, and taxes on banks and financial institutions.

Combining with official January-to-May data from the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr), the BIR’s total collections for the first half of the year reached ₱1.55 trillion, up from ₱1.36 trillion a year ago.

While BIR Commissioner Romeo Lumagui Jr. earlier hinted at the possibility of lowering its full-year ₱3.2-trillion target as it could become challenging for the agency to achieve such a figure, Recto expressed confidence in the BIR’s performance.

“So far, the BIR is doing a good job. They’re growing roughly by [16.2 percent]. So the BIR is okay,” Recto told reporters.

However, Lumagui believes that the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) could proceed with another downward adjustment of the BIR’s full-year collection goal.

“I think there might be a recalibration of the goal, again, considering that the assumption is not going to happen. So if we use the formula for arriving at the right collection target, it should be recalibrated,” Lumagui had said.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Customs (BOC), the country’s second-largest tax collection agency, had collected ₱77 billion in June, 3.2-percent higher than a year ago’s ₱74.6 billion.

Combining with end-May BTr data, the BOC’s total collections for the January-to-June period stood at ₱458.7 billion, accounting for 43.3 percent of the ₱1.06-trillion projection for the year, based on the FY 2025 Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing (BESF). Its end-June take was also slightly higher than ₱455.5 billion a year ago.

However, Recto said that the BOC would likely “miss its [2025 collection] target by around ₱100 billion,” attributing the shortfall to the impact of rice tariffication, growing importation of hybrid electric vehicles (EVs), and delayed implementation of new excise tax measures.

When it comes to non-tax revenues, however, the Finance chief said the government will “surpass [its target] by ₱100 billion.” Thus, an assertion that the government remains on track to hitting the overall revenue target.

Although figures were not available for non-tax collections, Recto noted that the “too low” 2025 target of ₱210.8 billion has already been “surpassed” last month.

As of end-May, non-tax revenues had already reached ₱200.9 billion, which was 95.3 percent of the full-year projection.

Based on the recently revised medium-term fiscal program (MTFP), the country’s budget gap is projected to settle at ₱1.56 trillion instead of a lower ₱1.54 trillion.