The Philippines is expected to import more agricultural products over the next decade as its domestic production grapples to meet the demand of a growing economy and booming population.

Based on the latest forecast of the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations’ (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Philippines will be among the developing countries that are seen to substantially drive agricultural trade from 2025 to 2034.

In their joint global agricultural outlook report, published on July 15, the OECD and FAO said regions with significant population growth and an expanding middle class will likely see their net imports rise in proportion to their increasing consumption.

The report stated that the increased demand is apparent in the transformation of Southeast Asia from a net exporter a decade ago to now being a net importer.

Countries that led this transition include the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand, driven by their respective income-driven demand and population growth.

Over the next 10 years, the Philippines will remain a key player in fueling the region’s appetite for imports.

“Over the medium term, countries such as Iran, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, as well as least developed nations in the region will drive the region’s import demand,” the report read.

Based on the 2020 census by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the country’s population stood at 109 million. The agency has projected that this will grow to over 120 million by 2030.

Coinciding with this, the government is targeting to reach upper-middle-income country (UMIC) status by the end of the year or in 2026.

These growth drivers will boost the demand in key commodities such as meat, which would see a sharp rise of 45 percent in consumption among UMICs.

“On a country basis, meat consumption growth, aside from China and India because of their vast population, is expected to be greatest in Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines, the United States (US), and Vietnam,” the report stated.

The OECD-FAO report said the growth of meat imports will be driven by the consumption demand and limited domestic production in the mentioned countries.

This year, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected the Philippines to increase its imports of pork and beef as demand outpaces the current capacity of domestic output.

The production of the country’s local industry continues to face setbacks amid the continued proliferation of animal diseases such as African swine fever (ASF).

Rice, the nation’s most vital staple, is also projected to undergo a rise in importation, reinforcing the Philippines’ position as the world’s top rice importer.

The USDA earlier projected that the country’s rice imports will rise to 5.5 million metric tons (MT) in the upcoming marketing year (MY), exceeding the record-high of 4.8 million MT in 2024.

Despite this, the OECD and FAO still expect the Philippines to be a key contributor to the rice trade, joining its Southeast Asian peers in contributing a 37-percent upsurge to the 10-year increase in global rice production.

The USDA has projected that the global production of the staple will reach 541.5 million MT this year. By 2034, the OECD and FAO said this will go up to nearly 600 million MT.

The OECD and FAO’s 10-year agricultural outlook is based on data and policies as of December last year. As such, the likely impact of recent developments such as tariff policies was not taken into account.

“Should these uncertainties persist or intensify, they may affect global agricultural markets in the medium term through macroeconomic channels such as inflation, exchange rates, and global growth trajectories,” it said.