The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned on Wednesday, July 16, that tropical depression “Crising” may bring strong winds and heavy rains as it moves closer to Northern Luzon, while the enhanced southwest monsoon (habagat) continues to affect large parts of the country.

As of 5 p.m., Crising was spotted 625 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes, and is moving west-southwestward at 20 kilometers per hour (kph).

It has maximum sustained winds of 45 kph and gusts of up to 55 kph.

PAGASA said Crising is expected to move generally westward over the next 12 hours before shifting northwestward by Thursday afternoon, July 17.

It may either pass close to or make landfall over mainland Cagayan or the Babuyan Islands between Friday evening, July 18, and early Saturday morning, July 19.

In a press conference on Wednesday, PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando warned the public not to dismiss the potential impacts of Crising.

“While Crising may not be a strong typhoon, we must not underestimate the hazards it may bring, especially the combined effects of the tropical cyclone with the enhanced southwest monsoon or habagat,” Servando said.

“Pinapayuhan natin ang ating mga kababayan na maging alerto dahil ang bagyong ito ay posibleng magbibigay ng mga malalakas na mga pag-ulan—moderate to heavy rains—na maaaring magdulot ng mga pagbaha sa mga mababang lugar at landslides sa mga bulubunduking lugar. Even in areas that are not directly in the path of the tropical depression Crising ay maaari pa ring maapektuhan dahil sa epekto ng enhanced southwest monsoon (We advise our fellow Filipinos to stay alert, as this storm may bring moderate to heavy rains, which could result in flooding in low-lying areas and landslides in mountainous regions. Even areas not directly in the path of tropical depression Crising may still be affected due to the influence of the enhanced southwest monsoon),” he added.

Servando advised the public to stay alert and closely monitor official bulletins and advisories to be issued by PAGASA.

The weather bureau also said Crising is likely to intensify into a tropical storm by Thursday morning and may strengthen further into a severe tropical storm by Friday afternoon or evening.

Intensification to typhoon status prior to its approach to Northern Luzon is also possible.

PAGASA said Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 may be hoisted over portions of Cagayan Valley as early as Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

If Crising maintains its current westward movement or increases its radius, Signal No. 1 may also be raised over Catanduanes.

The highest wind signals that could be raised during Crising’s passage are Signal No. 3 or 4, depending on its development and proximity to land.

Heavy rainfall associated with tropical depression Crising, combined with the habagat, is expected to bring widespread rain and possible flooding in affected areas.

From Wednesday to Thursday, moderate to heavy (50-100 mm) rainfall is forecast over Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, Cebu, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, and Zamboanga del Norte.

From Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon, heavy to intense (100-200 mm) rainfall may affect Catanduanes, Occidental Mindoro, Antique, and Negros Occidental.

Moderate to heavy rainfall may persist in Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Palawan, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Aklan, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Oriental, and Zamboanga del Norte.

From Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon, heavy to intense precipitation may prevail over Batanes, Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Antique.

Meanwhile, moderate to heavy rains may continue to affect Isabela, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Ilocos Sur, Metro Manila, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Cavite, Batangas, Rizal, Laguna, Palawan, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, and Negros Oriental.

PAGASA warned that rainfall could be heavier in mountainous and elevated areas, and antecedent rainfall in some areas may worsen the impacts.

PAGASA also warned that strong to gale-force winds from the habagat will affect several areas over the coming days.

Gusty conditions are expected in Palawan, Siquijor, Bohol, Camiguin, Southern Leyte, Surigao del Norte, and Dinagat Islands on Wednesday; expanding to Batangas, Quezon, Bicol Region, Mimaropa, Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental on Thursday; and further reaching Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Bicol Region, Mimaropa, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, and nearby areas on Friday.

Coastal waters are expected to experience rough seas, with waves reaching up to 2.5 meters along the western seaboard of Palawan, northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes, and other areas including Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Southern Leyte, and Davao Region.

Moderate seas up to 2 meters are forecast in parts of Occidental Mindoro, Antique, Negros Occidental, and Northern and Eastern Samar.

Mariners of small vessels are advised to exercise caution or avoid venturing out to sea.

PAGASA said Crising is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Saturday afternoon or evening.