Why is the Philippines a forever rising tiger? It’s a question that keeps coming up, again and again, in business forums, political debates, and even casual conversations. We always seem to be at the edge of something big, full of potential, full of promise. And yet, somehow, we never quite get there. For decades now, the Philippines has been stuck in this limbo—always on the brink of take-off, but never truly taking flight.

You hear it every year. Analysts say the country is one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia. International organizations talk about the “demographic dividend”—a young, growing workforce. Overseas Filipino remittances remain strong. There’s optimism around BPOs, around tourism, around infrastructure. But when you look at the long-term data, the story shifts. What you’ll find is an economy that’s been growing, yes, but not at the pace that creates transformation.

Since the 1980s, the country has hovered around five to six percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth, sometimes slightly higher, sometimes slightly lower. But what’s missing is that push—the kind of sustained double-digit growth that turns developing economies into true powerhouses. Vietnam had it. So did Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. They didn’t just grow fast for one year; they did it for several years straight, creating a foundation for industrialization, rising incomes, and a broader middle class. Vietnam, for example, experienced multiple years of 10 percent plus growth in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Thailand, before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, had double-digit growth in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s. Malaysia followed a similar path. Even Indonesia, despite political and economic upheaval, managed several years of rapid expansion. These countries surged ahead while we stayed in place.

The only time the Philippines came close was under President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III. In 2010, we hit 7.9 percent growth. In 2012, we breached 6.8 percent. In 2013, the economy grew again by 6.8 percent. There was one shining moment in 1988 when the country posted double-digit growth in a single quarter—about 12 percent, if we go by quarter-on-quarter data. But that was short-lived. A one-time burst, not a long-term trend.

So why does this keep happening to us? Why do we keep hearing that we’re the “next Asian tiger,” but never quite make the leap?

Part of the answer lies in the structure of our economy. We’ve long relied on consumption and remittances. OFWs keep sending money home. Filipinos keep spending. Businesses keep building malls. This cycle has helped us avoid recession at times when other economies crashed. But it also created a false sense of success. Consumption alone can’t drive lasting development. It doesn’t build factories, raise productivity, or generate high-quality jobs at scale.

Then there’s governance. Political instability, corruption, policy inconsistency—these have all weighed us down. Investors get cautious. Infrastructure projects stall. Long-term reforms take a backseat to short-term political gains. When other countries were planning industrial zones and building export competitiveness, we were busy with coups, scandals, and endless debates.

Another reason is our over-dependence on a few sectors. We’ve leaned heavily on BPOs and OFW remittances. Yes, they bring in dollars. Yes, they create jobs. But they don’t build industries that lift millions out of poverty. Manufacturing has been weak. Agriculture, neglected. Tourism, underdeveloped. When the global economy shakes—like during COVID or geopolitical tensions—we feel it hard.

Education and skills mismatch is another factor. We have bright young people, but many don’t have access to quality education. Those who graduate often don’t have the skills the economy needs. Other countries invested heavily in upskilling and R&D. We didn’t—or at least, not enough.

Add to that a culture of short-termism. Leaders change every six years. Policies shift. Projects get renamed or scrapped. We rarely follow through on plans that require decades of focus. The long game gets lost in politics.

Now, we face a new wave of global transformation—one driven by technology, innovation, and AI. Again, we are at risk of being left behind.

Global tech firms are increasingly overlooking the Philippines. Despite the region’s growing importance in the digital economy, the Philippines remains on the sidelines. While Indonesia is drawing cloud investments, Malaysia is building data centers, and Vietnam is becoming a hardware hub, we are barely noticed. I’ve seen it firsthand. I’ve spoken with tech executives who simply don’t see the Philippines as a priority market. They talk about our slow internet, outdated policies, and regulatory uncertainty. They point to the lack of incentives for R&D. They worry about talent gaps in AI, software engineering, and digital design.

And yet, the country keeps showing signs of hope. We do have a growing middle class. Entrepreneurs are thriving. Digital adoption is rising. There's a hunger among the youth for change. But hope alone doesn’t build nations.

Being called a rising tiger is flattering. But if you keep rising forever and never arrive, what’s the point? It’s like climbing a mountain that keeps moving higher every time you take a step. At some point, we have to ask hard questions: What’s holding us back? What do we need to change? Why is the promise of growth not translating into real prosperity for more Filipinos?

The answers are not simple. They require difficult choices—investments in education, a strong industrial policy, clean and competent governance, a real shift from consumption to production, and the political will to stay the course beyond six-year terms.

Until we do that, we’ll remain the “rising tiger”—not because we’re rising, but because we never stop being almost there.