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What now – after the 12-day war?

Published Jul 3, 2025 12:01 am  |  Updated Jul 2, 2025 08:39 am
Iran likely sees North Korea's model of stockpiling nuclear weapons as the only deterrent against external military attacks. Therefore, Iran's clandestine nuclear development, hidden 400 meters deep inside mountains, only confirms the International Atomic Energy Agency's assertion that Iran breached the nuclear arms proliferation agreement. Israeli intelligence also claimed Iran was mere weeks away from developing a nuclear warhead.
The full extent of the damage from “Operation Midnight Hammer,” which the United States inflicted through intensive bombing of three Iranian nuclear facilities, remains unestablished. Iran's elusive behavior in the past, however, suggests one should take its pronouncements about “badly damaged” nuclear facilities with a ton of salt.
All recent American presidents – George Bush, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, and Donald Trump – have, as we know, uniformly warned that Iran must never possess nuclear weapons. Iran's recent intelligence report, alleging it was poised to assassinate Trump, has converted this issue into an existential one for America.
No matter how they deny knowledge of each other's recent military actions, Israel remains America's surrogate brother in the Middle East. Israel's Mossad agents infiltrated Iran, leading to the deaths of major military commanders, intelligence officers, and top nuclear scientists. This was carried out alongside the obliteration of Iran's missile and military centers.
After the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu systematically decimated the tentacles of the Iranian Octopus: Hamas (Gaza), Hezbollah (Syria and Lebanon), and the Houthis.
Heretofore, Iran possessed the third-largest military force in the region and had the largest and most diverse ballistic missile delivery system. It draws strength from its financial resources, selling oil as it holds the fourth-largest oil reserves and the second-largest natural gas reserves.
With the Iranian “octopus tentacles” compromised, “Big Daddy” Washington saw an opportunity to deliver the coup de grâce against Iran's nuclear development sites. Since then, an anti-nuclear proliferation discussion has again been advanced, but history will not be on the side of Tehran's past broken promises.
Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is nowhere to be found – neither in his fortified compound nor any known bunker. He is an unpopular leader, with 80% of Iranians against his theocratic government, yearning for democracy. The TV footage of Iranians mourning the deaths of commanders and scientists could simply be propaganda to show support for the beleaguered government.
One thing is certain: the use of strategic B-52 bombers in Iran shows the USA is not truly a “lone wolf” isolationist in global affairs. A popular Chinese newspaper stated that the USA's distraction with the Middle East is temporary and that it will soon “concentrate on the containment of China” in the Indo-Pacific area, particularly concerning the Taiwan state imbroglio.
Luckily, none of the Arab states, aside from diplomatic verbiage against the attacks, supported Iran, understanding its evil intentions that endanger the total geopolitical health of the region. If a regime change occurs in Tehran, Iran will be virtually scratched from the region's power circle, making way for peacemakers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey to become major regional influencers.
China, while perennially a US rival in almost everything, cannot afford to escalate the Iran issue since Iran exports 85 percent of its oil to China. The world also discounted the possibility that Iran would close the Gulf of Hormuz (gateway for 85 percent of oil trade flow), as it would affect Iran's own overseas oil shipments.
Russia and Iran are both victims of Western economic sanctions, but that similarity is unlikely to draw Moscow into an Iran conflict, occupied as it is in a “no-win” war in Ukraine. Iran has, however, sold arms to Russia.
On the other hand, though Iran and the firebrand North Korea's Kim Jong Un established diplomatic ties long ago, it doesn't appear to be in North Korea's interest to get involved in Iran, even though recent history shows it did send troops and armaments to Ukraine to oppose Western NATO countries.
So, at least for now, it seems the war fever in the region has decelerated instead of escalating. It would be good for Israel and the USA to now work toward a peaceful resolution of the pitiful Gaza War, which has become an albatross around both their necks in terms of global public opinion.
But Biblical scholars still insist that the enmity between Israel and the Arab nations is rooted in the centuries-old hatred between the two warring descendants of Ishmael and Isaac, both sons of Abraham. That such is written in the stars.
Whatever – but, right now, the world needs a break after that deadly 12-Day War.
(Bingo Dejaresco, a former banker, is a financial consultant, media practitioner, and author. He is a Life and Media member of Finex. His views here, however, are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of Finex. [email protected])
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