$1.3T on trial: Will Baku-Belem roadmap deliver the climate cash?
BONN, Germany – At the SB62 Climate Meetings, negotiators are under immense pressure to transform grand pledges into tangible action, specifically to provisionally lock in the $1.3 trillion-a-year climate finance roadmap through 2035. This ambitious plan, forged in Baku, Azerbaijan, at COP29, is slated for a crucial reality check in Belém, Brazil, this November during the COP30 Climate Change Summit.
The trillion-dollar question looms large: Will the long-promised cash finally materialize, or will the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations be left waiting—again—at the end of a broken financial lifeline?
What resonated most powerfully through the halls of Bonn during the 10-day climate dialogue wasn't another chorus of polished promises. It was a raw, unified demand to shut down the talk shop and start writing the checks. For climate-stressed nations on the frontlines, empty diplomacy isn't a strategy; it's a slow-motion death sentence, paid for in lives, not words.
There’s also a palpable frustration in the room: Nations clinging to fossil fuels—especially those still sinking money into coal—should have no business cornering climate finance. They shouldn't cash in on a crisis they are intentionally helping to cause.
The proposed $1.3 trillion annual budget is an initiative to scale up climate finance for developing countries, seen as a blueprint to operationalize the new collective quantified goal (NCQG), jointly steered by the COP29 and COP30 presidencies. The work plan for the Baku-Belém roadmap was published on April 30 of this year. A draft for consultation is due by September 8, as stipulated by the Loss and Damage Collaboration, with the final roadmap expected by October 27, 2025, ahead of the COP30 summit.
The urgency of now: Leaders must act
UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell set a tone of blunt realism, making it clear that the path to COP30 is still off track and the fight to keep the 1.5∘C target is nowhere near won. Science, he stressed, isn't asking for patience; it's demanding immediate action.
“I’m not going to sugarcoat it – we have a lot more to do before we meet again in Belém. There is so much more work to do to keep 1.5 alive, as science demands,” he emphasized.
Stiell’s call to action is clear: “We must find a way to get to the hard decisions sooner. We need leaders and ministers to roll up their sleeves,” he urged, adding that “we will need negotiators to sit together between sessions to find common ground…you have so much more in common than divides you. We need to spend more time reflecting and building on this.”
With the budget already agreed upon, he asserted, “we take this as a vote of confidence in our collective work, and a clear signal that governments continue to see UN-convened climate cooperation as essential, even in difficult times.”
Stiell further explained, “this is a modest but vital investment, because this process is humanity's only means of preventing climate-driven global economic meltdown, with terrible human costs. Just as we have no Planet B, there is no process B.”
New NDCs and Belém's action agenda
As the world prepares to converge at the doorstep of the Amazon for the next climate summit, the battle lines are drawn around the crucial submission of new and updated nationally determined contributions, referred to as NDC 3.0. These will serve as strategic keystones to fuel the biennial transparency reports (BTRs) under the Paris Agreement’s Enhanced Transparency Framework, ultimately aiming to transform global pledges into conscientious, measurable actions.
At its core, the BTR stands as the unflinching ledger of climate accountability—tracking greenhouse gas emissions, gauging NDC progress, and mapping climate adaptation, finance, technology innovations, and capacity building. This will underpin the UNFCCC Secretariat’s critical analysis to illuminate the true state of global efforts to hold the line at the 1.5∘C warming limit.
“We look forward to receiving new and stronger NDCs by September and will include them in a new NDC Synthesis Report. This report will show how far we’ve come and how far we must go,” Stiell reminded participant-nations and policy shapers.
Looking ahead, the UN official declared, “we’ll share lessons and identify barriers to overcome with our first BTR Synthesis Report, and report progress on National Adaptation Plans,” while emphasizing that “all eyes will then be on COP30 to deliver the response to these reports, to see how nations pick up the pace of implementation.”
COP30's focused subthemes
COP30 President-designate André Corrêa do Lago unveiled that Belém’s structured action agendas will feature six laser-focused subthemes as axes of discussion, all anchored on the global stocktake. These include: a) Transitioning energy industry and transport; b) Stewarding forests, oceans and biodiversity; c) Transforming agriculture and food systems; d) Building resilience for cities, infrastructure and water; e) Fostering human and social development; f) The cross-cutting agenda of climate finance, technology, and capacity building.
He highlighted that these six agenda pavilions will operate independently during the 10-day summit. Their unifying mission will be to discuss solutions and ignite a relentless exchange of battle-tested examples that can empower nations to learn, adapt, and accelerate their climate fight together.
“We believe that we have enough under the Paris Accord and the UNFCCC to do things. We don’t need more negotiations to start to do things. We need to negotiate what continues to need negotiation. But at the same time, we already have huge amount of a very strong base for us to be implementing. I think every time we think of implementing, of negotiating, of working, we have to think of the urgency,” Corrêa do Lago noted.
For decades, vulnerable nations—including the Philippines—have been trapped in a brutal waiting game, clinging to hopes that climate funds would flow and threats would ease. Yet, as history has proven, resilience alone doesn’t protect coastlines or rebuild what’s lost. Now, it’s Belém’s turn to flip the table, break the cycle of delays, and finally cash in on promises that have been IOUs for far too long.
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