Up to 19 tropical cyclones may still develop and enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) before the year ends, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Wednesday, June 25.

During a climate forum, PAGASA weather specialist Joey Figuracion said two to three tropical cyclones may develop in July, followed by two to three in August, two to four in September, two to four in October, two to three in November, and one to two in December.

Only one tropical cyclone has formed so far this year, Tropical Depression Auring, which entered PAR in June.

“Ang mga bagyo sa susunod na mga buwan ay malaki ang tyansa na naglalandfall talaga (There is a high chance that tropical cyclones in the coming months will make landfall),” Figuracion said.

“Although mayroon ding tropical cyclones sa loob ng PAR lalo na sa July, August, September, at partially sa October ay siya rin yung nag-e-enhance ng habagat (While some systems may remain within the PAR without landfall, particularly from July to September and partly in October, they are still likely to enhance the southwest monsoon or ‘habagat’),” he added.

Based on climatological data, tropical cyclones in July commonly follow three tracks: recurving toward the northern boundary of the PAR and moving toward Taiwan or Japan without making landfall; crossing the extreme northern parts of the Philippines, such as Batanes or Babuyan Islands, before heading to China or Hong Kong; or traversing the north-central section of Luzon and exiting toward Vietnam.

Forecast rainfall

PAGASA said rainfall in July may be near normal in most parts of the country, except in northwestern Luzon, where below-normal rainfall may occur.

From August to September, rainfall conditions are expected to remain near normal across the country.

Between October and December, most areas may experience near to above-normal rainfall, with the likelihood of above-normal conditions increasing from August through the end of the year.

The increase in rainfall is often associated with the presence of tropical cyclones during this period, as storms that enter or form within the PAR typically bring widespread rains, either directly through landfall or indirectly by enhancing the habagat.