ENDEAVOR

Beyond the auspicious outcome of the 2025 midterm elections, the opposition is gearing itself for the next three major electoral battles, namely, the 2028, 2034, and 2040 presidential elections. Adopting a long-term perspective will enable the formulation of a wholistic plan that will span an entire generation.

This was the perspective shared by Senator Risa Hontiveros in an interview last week with journalist Christian Esguerra.

“Electoral movement” was the operative phrase used by Sen. Hontiveros to denote the thrust of the opposition’s efforts to build upon the gains achieved in the 2025 polls. She will be joined in the Senate by comebacking Senators-elect Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan. In the House of Representatives, their cause will be bannered by former Senator Leila de Lima and former law dean Chel Diokno who have been named, too, as members of the House prosecution panel in the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte that will begin soon.

Systemic change means addressing the root causes of a problem within a system, rather than just the symptoms, by transforming the system's underlying structures, policies, and mindsets. It's about creating lasting, positive impact by changing how the whole system functions.

Indeed, this is an ambitious goal that seemed all too far-fetched — until the unexpected outcome of the midterm elections that swept aside many traditional politicians, including notable show business personalities, and brought to the fore the possibility that a different genre of leaders will step up to seek a broad-based mandate.

Previously, we ventured the hypothesis that, since the EDSA People Power Revolution of 1986, we have witnessed three 12-year cycles: Cory Aquino and Fidel Ramos from 1986 to 1998; Erap Estrada and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo from 1998 to 2010; and Rodrigo Duterte and Bongbong Marcos, from 2016 to 2028.

The only “outlier” was the Noynoy Aquino presidency from 2010 to 2016. Recall that Noynoy sought and won the presidency following the death of his mother Cory and the massive outpouring of grief during her funeral procession that duplicated the 12-hour cortege for the martyred former Senator Benigno S. Aquino, Jr. in 1983. Recall that prior to his entry in the presidential derby, “none of the above” was outpolling the then prominent wannabes. Hence, his unplanned and unexpected entry proved to be a game-changer. Regrettably, unlike his mother, he was unable to see through the election of his preferred successor.

Now comes Sen. Hontiveros drawing up a fresh scenario: an unprecedented 18-year continuum spanning not two, but three consecutive six-year presidencies. On closer analysis, this scenario affirms the rationale for a single six-year term for the President. This was a new feature of our political system that was ushered in after the ratification of the 1987 Constitution. Now on its 38th year, it has already matched the lifespan of one its antecedents, the post-Commonwealth 1935 Constitution.

And who are the presumptive leaders who figure prominently in the runup to 2040?

Senator Hontiveros said that this will be discussed and vetted by the opposition during the next nine months so that, hopefully, the chosen tandem that will run in the 2028 elections will have sufficient time to woo and win majority support from the electorate.

Highly visible from among the opposition wannabes, are former Vice President Leni Robredo, Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan, and Hontiveros herself.

Former VP Leni is credited with having spearheaded the Kakampink wave that re-emerged powerfully following the setback suffered in 2022. She is now the first female mayor of Naga City. During the 2025 campaign, her endorsement was sought by many aspirants, proof positive of her undiminished, albeit increasing political clout.

Bam Aquino, who served as then VP Leni’s campaign manager in 2022, came into his own by placing second in the 2025 senatorial race; Kiko Pangilinan placed fifth. The latest pre-election polls projected that both of them were among those vying for the tail-end winning positions; the actual election results showed them in the lead pack. In retrospect, both of them affirmed that their independent stance was valued highly by big sections of the electorate that eschewed Marcos- or Duterte-supported slates.

In the 2022 elections, Sen. Risa Hontiveros was the lone survivor in the wake of the Marcos-Duterte tandem’s landslide victory. Together with outgoing Senator Koko Pimentel, she persevered as a minority senator. She shone during the Senate hearings that inquired into the POGO operations that were roundly denounced by President Marcos in his 2024 State of the Nation Address (SONA). Her pinpoint questioning enabled authorities to build an evidence bank upon which the Department of Justice anchored the prosecution of POGO enablers who have also been charged of other serious crimes, including human trafficking.

Aside from the four recognized potential presidential aspirants, I wish to include Pasig Mayor Vico Sotto, who has won a third consecutive term with 92 percent of the vote. Born in 1989, he will be only 39 years old in 2028; hence, he is eligible to run for the top two posts only in 2034 and 2040. Although not as seasoned as the others in terms of experience in national politics, he is clearly a one-of-a-kind, non-traditional politician who has transformed Pasig as a paragon of good governance.

Just like former President Noynoy Aquino, the five aforementioned exemplars have fanned the winds of change over the erstwhile jaded political landscape already laden by skepticism bordering on hopelessness.

Meanwhile, the Marcos-Duterte conflict festers.

After pitching for reconciliation with political adversaries, the President shifted to higher gear by asking all Cabinet members to submit their courtesy resignations. Then he proceeded to appoint new secretaries of foreign affairs, environment and natural resources, and human settlements, while retaining his executive secretary and five members of the economic team including the secretaries of finance, economic planning, budget and management, trade and industry, and the special assistant to the President for investment and economic affairs.

We await expectantly how the opposition will consolidate its significant gains. The euphoria generated by their recent electoral victory would subside and fade. The voters have since slipped back into being breadwinners who wake up each day hoping and praying that they will have the means to provide their family’s basic needs — and would continue aspiring for a better quality of life.

Are our emergent leaders truly prepared to step up and lead for the long haul? Those who reposed their faith in them are hopeful that, indeed, they will, in due time, present a comprehensive platform for governance that will bring about systemic change.

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