ENDEAVOR

After reviewing the results of last week’s midterm elections, what insights or lessons may be gained?

First, there is a shift in voter sentiment toward seeking alternatives to the Marcos-Duterte dualism. Second, the significance of gaining electoral ascendancy in the Lingayen-Lucena corridor has resurfaced. Third, big-money campaigning highlighted by massive advertising failed to elect high-profile senatorial bets.

There are other key lessons, but let’s beam the spotlight on these first three findings.

The UniTeam alliance that enabled the Bongbong Marcos-Sara Duterte tandem to win as President and Vice President, respectively, unraveled in two movements: first, the falling-out between the Vice President and the President’s first cousin and close confidant, Speaker Martin Romualdez; and second, First Lady Lisa Araneta-Marcos’ apparent disdain for VP Sara, that became public after the latter’s series of public criticisms aired against the Speaker.

Through these movements, both Bongbong and Sara seemed to be doing their best to maintain a façade of goodwill, or at least civility, toward each other. Meantime, both the former President and his son, Davao City Mayor Sebastian ‘Baste’ Duterte had tarred PBBM as “bangag,” an “emerging dictator,” and “lacking (in) vision,” according to a GMA-7 chronology.

A few days after the President defended his Vice President from criticisms over her alleged “indifference” to the administration’s concerns over the West Philippine Sea, the First Lady ventilated in an interview her resentment toward what she deemed as unwarranted criticism by VP Sara against her husband.

This proved to be the tipping point for Sara’s falling out from the Marcos administration. She resigned as DepEd Secretary on June 19, 2024. Not long after, the House QuadComm hearings on extrajudicial killings (EJKs) and alleged anomalies in the Duterte administration’s anti-drug abuse campaign commenced.

Ironically, she repeatedly snubbed another House committee’s hearings on the alleged misuse by the Office of the Vice President of intelligence funds running into the hundreds of millions, while she attended the hearings in which her father was present. The hearings took on a new twist when her chief of staff, Atty. Zuleika Lopez, was held in contempt and detained at the House of Representatives.

On Nov. 24, 2024, the Associated Press reported: “Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte said Saturday she has contracted an assassin to kill the president, his wife and the House of Representatives speaker if she herself is killed, in a brazen public threat that she warned was not a joke.”

Now that the winners of last week’s elections have been proclaimed, attention has shifted anew to the Vice President’s impending impeachment trial that will start on July 30. Two newly-elected representatives, Leila de Lima and Chel Diokno, are joining the House prosecution panel. Recall that while serving as Chair of the Commission on Human Rights, former Senator De Lima actively investigated the alleged EJKs attributed to the Davao Death Squad (DDS) that were known to have been active during Rodrigo Duterte’s long stint as Davao City Mayor. Atty. Diokno, a former dean of the De La Salle University Law School, has been providing legal assistance to the families of the EJK victims.

It would not be far-fetched to interpret the groundswell for the causes represented by Akbayan and Mamamayang Liberal — bannered by Representatives-elect De Lima and Diokno — as an indication of the people’s aspirations for change. Coupled by the strong second-place finish of Benigno Paulo ‘Bam’ Aquino IV and the fifth-place performance of Francis ‘Kiko’ Pangilinan in the Senate race, these twin developments are seen by their supporters as a “Kakampink” victory.

So let’s refocus on the significance of the so-called Lingayen to Lucena corridor. According to the Philippine Statistical Authority: “Of the 17 administrative regions, Region IV-A (Calabarzon) had the biggest population in 2020 with 16,195,042, followed by the National Capital Region (NCR) with 13,484,462 and Region III (Central Luzon) with 12,422,172.”

Political scientist Cleve V. Arguelles, CEO of WR Numero posted this on X: “Is winning the Lingayen-Lucena Corridor a sure way to win a national election? The Corridor comprises around 40 percent of voters in the country. It’s a key target for 'market votes' with a highly urban population most penetrated by the tools for ‘air war’: radio, TV, and internet.” Observably, the twin “Kakampink” bets and their party-list allies fared very well in these pivotal, vote-rich regions. 

I have observed, too, that there seems to be a cyclical “sawà” factor among Filipino voters. Recall that Fidel Ramos’ election rode on the crest of Cory Aquino’s EDSA-powered presidency. After 12 years of the Aquino-Ramos rule, Erap Estrada and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo were the presidents for the next 12 years, or from 1998-2000, and from 2000-2010 respectively. Then came Rodrigo Duterte, from 2016-2022, followed by Bongbong Marcos whose term expires in mid-2028.

Loosely translated or interpreted, “sawa” means “fed up” or “having lost interest in”; it can also refer to a feeling of weariness or boredom with a set of political leaders or personalities. In other words, the winds of change are blowing stronger anew.

The strong second-place finish of Benigno Paulo ‘Bam’ Aquino IV and the fifth-place performance of Francis ‘Kiko’ Pangilinan in the Senate race was — as well as the election of De Lima and Diokno — are being viewed as a vindication of those who, like them, supported former Vice President Leni Robredo’s unsuccessful presidential run in 2022 in which she was defeated by the Dutertes’ present-day adversary, President Bongbong Marcos.

The present-day “Kakampink” triumph is viewed as a “surprise” event  —  by their own admission, and even among their most ardent supporters — especially because of the awesome “air” power unleashed by some of their opponents who met the sad fate of defeat despite spending tremendous sums in campaign advertising.

This brings us full circle to the triumph of the Aquino-Laurel tandem in the aftermath of the snap elections followed by EDSA People Power in February 1986. After Ninoy, Cory and Noynoy, their kindred spirit have resurfaced in the mainstream of Philippine politics. Leni Robredo, Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan and Risa Hontiveros have emerged — rekindling fresh hopes that People Power democracy will flourish anew in our land. 

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